山美水库流域极端降水时空变化及非平稳性特征  

Temporal and spatial variation and non-stationary characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Shanmei reservoir basin

作　　者：宋铁燕 陈莹[1,2,3] 雷享勇 陈兴伟 高路[1,2,3] 刘梅冰 邓海军[1,2,3] SONG Tieyan;CHEN Ying;LEI Xiangyong;CHEN Xingwei;GAO Lu;LIU Meibing;DENG Haijun(Institude of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Mountain Ecology,Fuzhou 350007,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Accessing Terrestrial Disasters,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007 [2]湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福州350007 [3]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州350007

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第2期327-337,364,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2018YFE0206400);福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项项目(2018R1034-3;2019R1002-3);福建省灾害天气重点实验室开放课题(2020KFKT01)。

摘　　要：为探究极端降水的时空变化及其非平稳性特征,基于1972—2010年山美水库流域8个降水站点逐日降水数据,选取9个极端降水指数,利用Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall(P-WM-K)方法分析流域极端降水的时空变化特征,并采用广义可加模型(generalized additive models for location,scale and shape,GAMLSS)检测极端降水的非平稳性特征。结果表明:在时间变化趋势上,极端降水频率指数中雨日数R_(10mm)和大雨日数R_(25mm)呈下降趋势,暴雨日数R_(50mm)呈上升趋势,且上升趋势达到0.05显著性水平;除降水总量P _(RCPTOT)外,其余强度指数呈上升趋势,且均达到0.05显著性水平,其中极端降水量R_(95p)线性倾向率达到30.5 mm/(10 a);在空间差异上,R_(50mm)和极端降水强度指数在流域东南部呈现上升趋势,且上升趋势显著,西北部P_(RCPTOT)下降较明显;R_(10mm)和R_(25mm)呈平稳特征,R_(50mm)全流域约50%的站点呈现非平稳特征,且以均值非平稳为主,除P_(RCPTOT)外,其余强度指数均以非平稳特征为主,且主要表现为均值非平稳。未来山美水库流域极端降水量和不确定性增加,灾害风险增大。The probability distribution of extreme precipitation in the Shanmei reservoir basin is expected to change due to the dual influence of global climate change and human activities,showing non-stationary characteristics.Therefore,investigating the temporal and spatial trend characteristics and the non-stationarity of the extreme precipitation are valuable for policy decisions.Based on the daily precipitation data of 8 meteorological stations in the Shanmei reservoir basin from 1972 to 2010,9 extreme precipitation indices including 6 intensity indices and 3 frequency indices were used to describe the extreme precipitation characteristics.The Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall(P-WM-K)method was adopted to analyze the temporal and spatial trend changes of extreme precipitation,and the generalized additive models for location,scale,and shape(GAMLSS)was employed to characterize the non-stationarities in the 9 indices in the Shanmei reservoir basin.The number of moderate precipitation days(R_(10mm))and the number of heavy rain days(R_(25mm))showed a downward trend while the number of very heavy rain days(R_(50mm))showed an upward trend with a 0.05 significant level.Except for the total precipitation(P_(RCPTOT)),the other intensity indices(daily intensity(S_(DII)),very wet day precipitation(R_(95P)),extremely wet day precipitation(R_(99P)),max 1-day precipitation(R_(X1day))and the max 5-day precipitation(R X5day))increased significantly.The linear trend rate of R_(95p)reached 30.5 mm/(10 a).The extreme precipitation indices had abrupt changes in the whole basin,and the mutation years mainly occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s.In terms of spatial variation,R_(10mm) and R_(25mm) showed a download trend for all the stations,and reaches a 0.05 significant level in Dazhong and Zimei Stations.R_(25mm) showed a downward trend for the stations in the exception of the Dongguan and Shanmei Stations while the trend was not significant.The R_(50mm) and extreme precipitation intensity indices showed an upward trend in the southeastern

关 键 词：极端降水 时空变化 非平稳性 GAMLSS模型 山美水库流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]