基于博弈论组合赋权的水电站事故风险评价  

Risk evaluation of hydropower station accidents based on combination weighting of game theory

作　　者：崔威 李晓英[1] 郭宜薇 CUI Wei;LI Xiaoying;GUO Yiwei(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430014,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]长江水利委员会长江科学院,武汉430014

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第2期408-416,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400909)。

摘　　要：针对单一赋权法存在不足和开都河流域上水电站风险等级难以客观确定的问题,采用博弈论方法,对FAHP(fuzzy analytic hierarchy process)法确定的主观权重和CRITIC(criteria importance through intercriteria correlation)法确定的客观权重进行组合优化,构建基于FAHP-CRITIC-博弈论组合赋权的水电站风险模糊综合评价模型。统计分析开都河流域上两座串联水电站的出险事故赔案,从自然环境、电力运行、建筑与设备3个方面建立风险因素指标体系,依据事故损失金额进行风险等级划分,采用隶属度函数计算各风险指标隶属度,利用构建的FAHP-CRITIC-博弈论组合赋权法进行各因素最优组合权重计算,进行多层次模糊综合评价,根据最大隶属度原则确定水电站风险等级。结果表明,该水电站风险等级为低风险,主要风险指标为暴雨洪水和设备故障,与水电站实际情况相符。The research on the risk of hydropower station mainly focuses on the construction of hydropower station,while there are few studies on the risk assessment of the hydropower plant operation.The accidents in the operation of hydropower station show a trend of diversification and complexity.It is particularly difficult to evaluate hydropower station risk level from the perspective of single risk mechanism.Therefore,based on the accident data during the operation period of the hydropower station,the risk level of the hydropower station can be analyzed effectively by the comprehensive evaluation based on the index system of risk factors.The single weighting method in traditional risk assessment has certain limitations and the risk level of hydropower station is difficult to be objectively determined.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for hydropower station risk has been established based on the FAHP-CRITIC-game theory method.The risk factors are determined by accident causation theory and the index system of risk factors has been established.The membership degree function is used to calculate the membership degree of each risk index based on the accident loss amount and the fuzzy relation matrix has been obtained.The subjective weight and objective weight of the factors are calculated by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC method respectively,and the combinatorial optimization is carried out by the game theory method to make the weighting more reasonable.The fuzzy relation matrix and combination weight are used to have the multi-level fuzzy evaluation.The risk assessment of a cascade hydropower station is carried out and the risk grade of hydropower station is determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree.Among the natural environmental risks,the weights of torrential rains and flood and debris flow are relatively high.In the risk of power operation,the weights of current shock and overvoltage are higher.In the risk of construction and equipment,equipment failure is the main in

关 键 词：水电站风险 FAHP法 CRITIC法 博弈论 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV742[水利工程—水利水电工程]