四川冕宁“6.26”大暴雨模式预报检验  

Verification of Multi-models Prediction Test for a Heavy Rain on June 26 in Mianning

作　　者：曹萍萍[1,2] 陈朝平 范江琳[1,2] CAO Pingping;CHEN Chaoping;FAN Jianglin(Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2022年第1期61-69,共9页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2020)2A-14);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金重大专项(SCQXKJZD202101)。

摘　　要：运用气象观测资料和GRAPES、ECMWF、SWCWARMS_9KM(简称SWC)模式预报资料,对冕宁“6.26”大暴雨天气过程模式预报性能进行检验。结果表明:(1)对于24 h累计降水预报,中尺度区域模式优势明显,量级与落区预报效果均为最好,其中GRAPES_3KM模式预报落区分布与实况重合度较高,暴雨及以上量级降水TS评分最高。(2)GRAPES_3KM模式最大小时雨强10 mm以上降水落区与实况大雨及以上量级降水落区匹配度最高,ECMWF模式24 h累计降水多物理量订正产品及短时强降水概率产品次之。(3)SWC及GRAPES_3KM模式24 h累计降水极值点相比实况略偏北,量级偏小。对于小时降水峰值出现时间,SWC模式偏早4 h,GRAPES_3KM模式偏早3 h。(4)GRAPES_GFS模式环流背景预报更接近实况,SWC模式能较好地预报出冕宁上空中尺度辐合系统的存在。The performance of the model forecast of the June 26 heavy rainstorm in Mianning was tested in detail by using meteorological observation data and multi-models forecast data.The results show that:(1)For the 24h cumulative precipitation forecast,meso-scale regional model had obvious advantages,and the precipitation level and fall zone were the best.The distribution of fall zone of GRAPES_3KM was highly consistent with the actual situation,and it’s TS score of large precipitation over 50mm was the highest.(2)The maximum hourly rainfall intensity of GRAPES_3KM over 10mm matched the actual precipitation fall zone best,followed by the revised product of accumulated precipitation of multiple physical quantities in ECMWF 24h and the probability product of short-time heavy precipitation.(3)The 24h cumulative precipitation extreme points of SWC and GRAPES_3KM models were slightly norther than the actual situation,and the magnitude was smaller.For the peak time of hourly precipitation,SWC model was 4h earlier and GRAPES_3KM was 3h earlier.(4)The forecast of GRAPES_GFS situation field was closer to the actual situation,and SWC model could better predict the exist-ence of mesoscale convergence system over Mianning.

关 键 词：暴雨 24 h降水检验 预报衍生产品 集合预报 小时雨强 形势场检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]