基于Monte Carlo算法的复杂机械系统共因失效研究  

Research on Common Cause Failures of Multiple Types of Mechanical Systems Based on Monte Carlo Algorithms

作　　者：叶建飞 赵飞豹 张焱[1] 李超[1] 王烨君 YE Jianfei;ZHAO Feibao;ZHANG Yan;LI Chao;WANG Yejun(Xi'an Electronic Engineering Research Institute, Xi'an 710100)

机构地区：[1]西安电子工程研究所,西安710100

出　　处：《火控雷达技术》2022年第1期58-64,共7页Fire Control Radar Technology

摘　　要：鉴于全概率模型方法计算存在共因失效的机械系统可靠度时,存在多重积分计算难度大以及复杂系统难以建模的问题,本文从Monte Carlo数值仿真的角度出发,在对全概率模型方法进行分析的基础上,通过仿真发现Monte Carlo算法能否准确计算共因失效可靠度的关键是引起共因失效的随机因素在仿真过程中的抽样方式能否体现共因失效特性。结合元胞自动机在处理复杂网络可靠性评估方面的优势,本文构建存在共因失效的串联、并联和复杂混联机械系统可靠度数值仿真算法,并就共因失效对不同类型机械系统可靠度影响展开研究。结果表明算法精度与全概率模型方法相当,且适用于更加复杂的系统。在此基础上通过与经典可靠度方法对比发现,共因失效对串联系统可靠度影响程度大于对并联系统可靠度的影响程度。It is found difficult to calculate multiple integrals and model complex systems when assessing the reliability of mechanical systems with common cause failures using the total probability model method.Analysis of the total probability model method and Monte Carlo numerical simulation lead to a conclusion that in order to calculate the reliability of a system with common cause failures accurately based on the Monte Carlo algorithm,it is necessary to sample the random factors that cause the common cause failures in such a way in the process of simulation that the characteristics of common cause failures are reflected.Given the advantage of cellular automata in reliability evaluation of complex networks,a numerical simulation algorithm is proposed for reliability calculation of series,parallel,and complex mechanical systems with common cause failures.In addition,the effect of common cause failures on different types of mechanical systems is studied.The results show that the influence of common cause failures on the reliability of series systems is greater than that on the reliability of parallel systems.It is found that the accuracy of the proposed algorithm is equivalent to that of the total probability model method.However,the proposed algorithm is more suitable for complex systems.

关 键 词：共因失效 可靠度 Monte Carlo 全概率模型 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：TN95[电子电信—信号与信息处理] TH114.3[电子电信—信息与通信工程]