外国直接投资与发展中世界的国家能力——基于外资来源国多元化的理论模型与经验证据  

Foreign Direct Investment and State Capacity in the Developing World: Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from the Perspective of Investor Diversity

作　　者：陈兆源 Chen Zhaoyuan(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所发展研究中心,北京100732

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2022年第3期120-155,160,共37页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国对非投资与构建中非命运共同体路径研究”(项目批准号:21CGJ016)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：国家能力是指一国政府为达到预定目标而执行政策的能力。区别于多数既有研究基于外国直接投资数量维度的研究路径,作者从外国直接投资的结构维度出发,认为新投资者的加入为发展中国家提供了新的外部选项和更为丰富的政策操作空间,使其可以利用议程设置权力和扩大广义赢集的方式实现自身偏好,从而提升本国国家能力。通过利用欧几里得式空间模型,基于赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数构造外资来源国多元化指数并采用发展中国家的跨国数据,上述观点得到了验证。最不发达国家的外资多元化对其国家能力产生正向边际效应的条件更苛刻,因为这些国家在面对外国投资者时议价能力较弱。中东和北非国家是例外,这可能与其丰富的石油资源有关。自然资源要素吸引了多元的外国投资者,但该地区部分“食利国家”并未将其投资于国家能力建设。考察外资来源国多元化程度对发展中国家的国家能力的影响为经济全球化背景下国家能力的来源提供了新解释,并为研究外国直接投资的国内政治效应提供了新的理论视角。State capacity refers to the ability of a government to implement policies to achieve predetermined goals. This paper attempts to explore whether foreign direct investment( FDI) is beneficial or detrimental to the state capacity of developing countries. Unlike most existing studies,which focus on the quantitative dimension of FDI,this paper examines the structural dimension of FDI,and argues that the entry of new investors provides developing countries with new outside options and a richer policy space for maneuver,allowing them to use their agenda-setting power and expand the broad win-set to realize their preferences and thus enhance their state capacity. By elaborating a Euclidean spatial model and building an FDI diversity index based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index,the paper validates the above view with cross-country data from developing countries. Besides,it is found that the conditions for the positive marginal effect of foreign capital diversification on state capacity are more demanding in LDCs,as these countries have weaker bargaining power in the face of foreign investors. The MENA countries are the exception,probably owing to their abundant oil resources. Natural resource factors have drawn a diverse range of global investors, but some rentier states in the region have failed to invest in building state capacity. For the first time,this paper examines the impact of foreign investment diversification on state capacity in developing countries, offering a new explanation for the sources of state capacity in the context of economic globalization as well as a new theoretical perspective for studying the domestic political effects of FDI.

关 键 词：外国直接投资 国家能力 投资者多元化 议程设置权 发展中国家 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]