增值税减税的效应:异质企业环境下的政策模拟  

The Effect of VAT Reduction:Policy Simulation under Heterogeneous Firm Environment

作　　者：尹恒 迟炜栋 YIN Heng;CHI Wei-dong(National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第2期80-98,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国劳动收入份额演变的新趋势及驱动力研究:基于企业行为的微观视角”(批准号72173131);国家自然科学基金面上项目“异质企业环境下税收的超额负担研究”(批准号71873132);中国人民大学科学研究基金重大项目“税收效率和减税降费效应研究:异质企业的视角”(批准号2020030014)。

摘　　要：增值税减税是中国近年来减税降费政策的主体。本文提出一个分离增值税减税对企业需求端和成本端影响的模型,以模拟增值税减税的产出、价格、就业和税收收入效应。这一方法能够识别出企业异质的增值税减税短期效应,有助于控制企业在产业链中的位置、外包程度和抵扣链条完整性等方面的差异对增值税减税效应的影响。本文得到一些有意义的发现:(1)增值税减税的实质效应(产出和就业)相当可观,价格效应不明显,减税激发微观活力的代价是税收收入的较大幅度减少。以增值税对称减税3.00个百分点为例,制造业的加总产出、价格、就业和税收收入增长率分别为4.41%、-0.61%、7.15%和-17.09%。(2)完善增值税的抵扣链条、提升企业进项税抵扣的便利,同样具有重要的减税效应。(3)增值税减税能够明显改善制造业的资源配置效率,提升宏观生产率。削减增值税税率后,生产率越高的企业增长更快,劳动增加更多,从而其市场份额提高。同时,生产率高的企业的价格下降较多,而税收收入下降幅度较小。这些政策模拟结果对于优化增值税减税政策和完善增值税制度具有重要的借鉴意义。VAT reduction is the main part of China’s tax reduction and fee reduction policy in recent years.This paper puts forward a model which can separate the effects of VAT reduction on demand and cost.This model can evaluate and simulate the effects of VAT reduction on output,price,employment and tax revenue.This method can identify the heterogeneous effect of VAT reduction and can help control the influence of enterprises position in the industrial chain,outsourcing degree and the integrity of deduction chain on VAT reduction effect.Using data for Chinese firms from Annual Surveys of Industrial Production,this paper gets a lot of interesting findings.First,the effect of VAT reduction(output and employment) is considerable,while the effect on price is not obvious.The cost of tax reduction to stimulate the vitality of enterprises is a large decline of tax revenue.Taking the symmetrical VAT reduction of 3 percentage points as an example,the aggregate output,the aggregate prices,the aggregate employment and the aggregate tax revenues increase by 4.41 per cent,-0.61 per cent,7.15 per cent and-17.09 per cent respectively.Second,improving the integrality of VAT chain and enhancing the convenience of input VAT credit also have important effects.Third,VAT reduction can significantly improve the allocation efficiency in manufacturing industry and enhance macro productivity.More productive firms grow faster and hire more labor after the VAT cut,thus increasing their market share.At the same time,the price of enterprises with high productivity drops more,while the tax revenue drops less.These policy simulation results have important reference significance for optimizing the value-added tax reduction policy and perfecting the value-added tax system.

关 键 词：增值税减税 需求弹性 企业异质性 结构估计 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]