2010—2019年安康市百日咳流行病学分析  

Epidemiological analysis on pertussis cases in Ankang from 2010 to 2019

作　　者：金华英[1] 焦欢[1] 汪红梅[1] 罗延琪 陈果[1] 陈元慧 JIN Hua-ying;JIAO Huan;WANG Hong-mei;LUO Yan-qi;CHEN Guo;CHEN Yuan-hui(Ankang Center of Disease Control and Prevention,Shaanxi 725000,China)

机构地区：[1]安康市疾病预防控制中心,陕西725000

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2022年第4期365-369,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：安康市科技局—以季节性分布特征的主要传染病流行病学研究(2015AK04-11)。

摘　　要：目的研究了解2010—2019年安康市百日咳流行特征和发病原因,为防控百日咳工作提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统导出2010—2019年安康市百日咳病例进行描述性流行病学分析,并利用整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, ARIMA)对2020年7月—2021年6月百日咳发病情况进行预测。结果 2010—2019年安康市百日咳病例总体呈上升趋势。2019年发病率最高,为4.95/10万,与2018年相比上升299.00%。年龄分布以6岁以下儿童为主,占发病总数的94.07%。发病集中在3类人群:散居儿童(75.42%)、幼托儿童(15.25%)、学生(9.32%)。2019年汉阴县病例中在校/在园学生25例、散居儿童15例,部分病例已构成聚集性疫情。预测模型提示2020年7月—2021年6月安康市百日咳发病将有所下降。结论 2010—2019年安康市儿童百日咳发病呈上升趋势,确保疫苗生产质量、提高接种质量、做好传染病监测工作,是预防和控制百日咳的重点。受2020年初新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的影响,国家采取了一系列针对呼吸道传染病预防和控制的有效措施,百日咳的发病率也有所下降。Objective To study the epidemic characteristics and causes of pertussis cases in Ankang from 2010 to 2019,and to provide basis for prevention and control of pertussis.Methods The pertussis cases in Ankang from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology, and ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) was used to predict the forecast of pertussis from July 2020 to June 2021.Results Pertussis cases in Ankang showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2019.The incidence rate hits the maximum value in 2019,and increased by 299.00% when compared to 2018.The case with the age distribution under 6 years were dominated by children, accounting for 94.07% of the total onset cases.The incidence was concentrated in three populations including scattered children(75.42%),childcare children(15.25%) and students(9.32%).In 2019,there were 25 on-campus students and 15 scattered children in Hanyin, and some cases have developed aggregated epidemics.According to the prediction model, the incidence of pertussis in Ankang might decrease from July 2020 to June 2021.Conclusion The incidence of pertussis in children in Ankang is on the rise from 2010 to 2019,and they are key points of prevention and control of pertussis to ensure the quality of vaccine production, improve the quality of vaccination, and proper implementation of infectious disease monitoring.Influenced by COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020,China adopted a series of effective measures to control respiratory infectious diseases, and the incidence of whooping cough also declined.

关 键 词：百日咳 流行病学 预测 疫苗 聚集性疫情 分析 

分 类 号：R516.6[医药卫生—内科学]