基于地理探测器的京津冀地区制造业集聚对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of Manufacturing Agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region on PM_(2.5) Concentration Based on Geographic Detector

作　　者：王嘉宁 李业锦[1] 李怡旻 李倩 Wang Jianing;Li Yejin;LI Yimin;Li Qian(College of Resources Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100088;China International Engineering Consulting Corporation,Senior Engineer,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100088 [3]中国国际工程咨询有限公司,北京100048

出　　处：《智库理论与实践》2022年第2期141-153,共13页Think Tank:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“北京城市环境污染对居民居住空间选择的影响及其演化模拟”(项目编号:41671166);国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于城市安全环境评价的大城市应急避难场所区位优化配置研究:以北京为例”(项目编号:41001105)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]探究京津冀地区雾霾污染的分布特征以及影响因素,厘清PM_(2.5)浓度与制造业集聚之间的关系,可能是推动京津冀地区绿色发展的重要途径。[方法/过程]本文基于2005—2013年京津冀地区规模以上工业企业微观数据以及NASA的年均PM_(2.5)浓度数据,以京津冀204个区(县)为研究对象,探究制造业集聚与PM_(2.5)浓度的时空演化特征,运用地理探测器方法,从集聚形式和行业异质性两个视角揭示PM_(2.5)浓度空间分布的影响机理。[结果/结论]①京津冀地区年均PM_(2.5)浓度呈现西北低、东南高的空间分布格局,且上升态势明显。制造业集聚形式呈现空间分异特征,其中集聚密度呈现“京-津-邯”三核心组团式发展格局。专业化集聚表现为“张-保-邢-秦”四小型核心发展格局。多样性集聚呈现集中连片式发展格局。②不同时期的制造业集聚形式对PM_(2.5)浓度的解释力存在差异。集聚密度始终是PM_(2.5)浓度空间分布的主导因素,但影响程度有所下降,专业化集聚对于PM_(2.5)浓度的解释力有所增强。不同集聚形式的交互作用加强了对PM_(2.5)浓度空间分布的影响程度。③从行业异质性来看,化学原料及化学制品制造业是导致PM_(2.5)浓度空间分异的主导因素,化学原料及化学制品制造业与其他因子的交互作用的解释力明显强于其他因子间的交互作用,其与黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业交互作用的解释力最高。因此,引导制造业空间合理集聚、有序集聚、多样性集聚,加大偏污染型、重化工产业的疏解力度,加快推动制造业绿色环保转型,是京津冀地区PM_(2.5)环境治理的重要战略选择。[Purpose/significance]Exploring the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of haze pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and clarifying the relationship between PM_(2.5) concentration and manufacturing agglomeration may be an important way to promote the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.[Method/process]204 districts and counties in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were taken as research objects to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of manufacturing agglomeration and PM_(2.5) concentration based on the data of industrial enterprises and the average annual PM_(2.5) concentration data from 2005 to 2013.The geographical detectors were used to reveal the influence mechanism of PM_(2.5) concentration spatial distribution from the perspectives of industry heterogeneity and agglomeration.[Result/conclusion]①The average annual PM_(2.5) concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a low spatial distribution pattern in northwest and a high spatial distribution pattern in southeast,with the obviously upward trend.The agglomeration form of manufacturing industry presented the spatial differentiation characteristic,in which the agglomeration density presented the development pattern of“Beijing-Tianjin-Handan”three-core group.Specialized agglomeration was manifested in the four small core development patterns of“Zhangjiakou-Baoding-Xingtai-Qinhuangdao”.Diversity agglomeration showed a centralized and contiguous development pattern.②There was difference in the explanatory power of manufacturing agglomeration forms to PM_(2.5) concentration in different periods.Agglomeration density is always the dominant factor in the spatial distribution of PM_(2.5) concentration,but the degree of influence decreases to some extent.Specialized agglomeration has enhanced the explanatory power of PM_(2.5) concentration.The interaction of different agglomeration forms strengthens the degree of influence on the spatial distribution of PM_(2.5) concentration.③Fro

关 键 词：集聚形式 PM_(2.5) 地理探测器 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]