美联储双紧缩政策对中国进出口贸易的影响  

Federal Reserve double tightening policy on China's import and export trade

作　　者：金英姬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2022年第3期28-32,8,共6页Maritime China

摘　　要：通过我国金融政策的自主性,美联储缩表加息通过利率机制和汇率机制对货币市场和金融市场产生的负向溢出效应基本可控。但由于资本市场的结构问题,美联储双紧缩政策将通过全球资本再配置机制对我国的资本市场产生一定影响。在流动性收紧的情况下,资金供给减少,企业投资成本增加,再投资和扩大投资意愿降低。同时,股市承压,一旦投资者收益下降,将给美国消费者带来负向财富效应,消费萎缩,加上加息可能带来经济增长放缓,会导致进口需求减少,牵制我国出口。同理,美国的紧缩政策对其他国家也会产生传递效应,影响对我国出口产品的需求,冲击我国的出口以及出口连带的进口。Through the independence of China's financial policy,the negative spillover effect of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and raising interest rate on the money market and financial market through interest rate mechanism and exchange rate mechanism is basically controllable.But because of the structure of the capital market,the tightening policy will exert a certain influence on China's capital market through the global capital reallocation mechanism.Under the circumstance of liquidity tightening,capital supply decreases,enterprise investment cost increases,and the willingness to reinvest and expand investment decreases.At the same time,the stock market is under pressure.Once investors'returns decline,it will bring negative wealth effect to American consumers.Consumption will shrink.Similarly,the tightening policy of the United States will also have a pass-through effect on other countries,affecting the demand for China's export products,and impacting China's export and its associated imports.

关 键 词：汇率机制 进口需求 投资意愿 传递效应 利率机制 中国进出口贸易 紧缩政策 资金供给 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]