Distinctive South and East Asian monsoon circulation responses to global warming  

东南亚夏季风环流对全球变暖的响应

作　　者：Tim Li Yuhao Wang Bin Wang Mingfang Ting Yihui Ding Ying Sun Chao He Guang Yang 李天明;王宇浩;王斌;丁敏芳;丁一汇;孙颖;何超;杨光(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;International Pacifc Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu HI 96822,USA;Lemont-Doherty Earth Observatory,Columbia University,Palisades,NY 10964,USA;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Institute for Environmental and Climate Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511400,China)

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]International Pacifc Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu HI 96822,USA [3]Lemont-Doherty Earth Observatory,Columbia University,Palisades,NY 10964,USA [4]National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China [5]Institute for Environmental and Climate Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511400,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2022年第7期762-770,共9页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42088101);the National Key Research & Development Program of China (2017YFA0603802);US National Science Foundation (AGS-2006553)

摘　　要：The Asian summer monsoon(ASM)is the most energetic circulation system.Projecting its future change is critical for the mitigation and adaptation of billions of people living in the region.There are two important components within the ASM:South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Although current state-of-the-art climate models projected increased precipitation in both SASM and EASM due to the increase of atmospheric moisture,their circulation changes differ markedlyÐA robust strengthening(weakening)of EASM(SASM)circulation was projected.By separating fast and slow processes in response to increased CO_(2) radiative forcing,we demonstrate that EASM circulation strengthening is attributed to the fast land warming and associated Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing.In contrast,SASM circulation weakening is primarily attributed to an El Niño-like oceanic warming pattern in the tropical Pacific and associated suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent.亚洲夏季风是最具能量的环流系统,是全球季风的重要组成部分.亚洲地区人口繁密,预估亚洲夏季风的未来变化对缓解和适应气候变化以及政府政策的制定具有重要意义.南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风是亚洲夏季风的两个重要组成部分.当前最为先进的气候模式预估未来南亚和东亚夏季风降水均会增强,但是它们的环流变化相反,表现为南亚夏季风环流减弱,东亚夏季风环流增强.通过分离二氧化碳浓度增加所引起的直接辐射强迫快速过程和海洋缓慢增暖过程,我们证实东亚夏季风环流的增强来源于直接辐射强迫引起的欧亚大陆快速增暖,同时青藏高原增强的热力强迫也扮演了重要角色.与东亚夏季风不同,南亚夏季风环流的减弱主要来源于热带太平洋上类厄尔尼诺海温增暖型.该海温增暖型通过削弱沃克环流从而抑制海洋性大陆的对流活动,进而减弱南亚夏季风环流.

关 键 词：Global warming South and East Asian monsoon circulation changes Fast and slow responses Tibetan Plateau Sea surface temperature warming pattern 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434