ARIMA乘积季节模型分析承德市手足口病流行趋势  

Analysis of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease Epidemic Trends in Chengde City by ARIMA Multiplicative Seasonal Model

作　　者：池也 池水晶 关强[3] 刘宁宁[4] CHI Ye(Yunnan University, Yunnan Kunming 650504, China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学,云南昆明650504 [2]承德医学院附属医院,河北承德067000 [3]河北省承德市疾病预防控制中心,河北承德067000 [4]河北省承德市中心医院,河北承德067000

出　　处：《河北医学》2022年第4期690-694,共5页Hebei Medicine

基　　金：河北省承德市科学技术研究与发展计划课题,(编号:202109A106)。

摘　　要：目的:建立差分整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model,A RIMA)对承德市手足口病流行情况进行预测,为手足口病防控提供依据。方法:收集来自承德市疾病预防控制中心以及承德市中心医院诊疗记录相关数据,利用R软件对承德市手足口病发病例数逐月统计,采用季节性疏系数模型进行模型拟合及预测分析。结果:承德市手足口病发病呈明显季节性分布,病例集中在第三季度,第二季度为发病次高峰。选用ARIMA(0,1,2)疏系数模型预测未来三年各月份发病例数结果最优。结论:整合移动平均自回归模型能较好拟合手足口病季节发病变化趋势,应用于早期预警及防控工作。Objective:To establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model,A RIMA)to predict the prevalence of HFMD in Chengde City and to provide a basis for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods:The data were collected from the Chengde Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the Chengde Central Hospital,and the number of HFMD cases in Chengde was counted on a monthly basis using R software,and the seasonal sparse coefficient model was used for model fitting and prediction analysis.Results:The incidence of HFMD in Chengde showed a clear seasonal distribution,with cases concentrated in the third quarter and a secondary peak in the second quarter.The ARIMA(0,1,2)sparse coefficient model was chosen to predict the best results for the number of incidence cases in each month in the next three years.Conclusion:The integrated moving average autoregressive model is a good fit for seasonal trends in HFMD incidence and can be used for early warning and prevention and control.

关 键 词：ARIMA乘积季节模型 手足口病 早期预警 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R725.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]