基于SPEI的潮白河流域气象干旱时空特征分析  

SPEI-based Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in the Chaobai River Basin

作　　者：门宝辉[1] 蔡斌[1] 田巍 MEN Baohui;CAI Bin;TIAN Wei(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle&Related Land Surface Process,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期10-20,共11页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家“十三五”重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406)。

摘　　要：在全球变暖加剧的背景下,区域干旱情况愈发严重。潮白河流域作为密云水库的重要集水区,对其干旱特征研究具有重要的现实意义。基于中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集,提取潮白河流域1979—2018年的气象数据,计算不同时间尺度的标准化蒸散发指数(SPEI)值,分析潮白河流域气象干旱时间和空间上的变化特征。结果表明:①1979—2018年,潮白河流域降水和潜在蒸散发分别以11.02 mm/(10年)和9.95 mm/(10年)的速度增长,流域降水增加趋势由西向东减少,潜在蒸散发的增加趋势则相反,流域东部地区干旱风险变大;②潮白河流域干旱特征主要以轻旱和中旱为主,月、季尺度的SPEI值呈现出减小趋势,半年和年尺度的SPEI值呈现出增加趋势;从季节的干旱分布来看,春、夏、冬季有着变干的趋势,但趋势并不明显,秋季干旱情况则有显著缓解;③从空间分布来看,1979—2008年,流域干旱频率高和干旱烈度大的地区主要集中在潮白河流域西部和南部。但是2009—2018年的出现反转,干旱烈度和干旱频率中心出现在流域东部和北部地区。In the context of increasing global warming,regional droughts have become more and more serious.As an important catchment area of Miyun Reservoir,the Chaobai River Basin has important practical significance for the study of its drought characteristics.Based on China′s regional ground meteorological element-driven data set,the meteorological data of the Chaobai River Basin from 1979 to 2018 were extracted,the standardized evapotranspiration index(SPEI)values of different time scales were calculated,and the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought in the Chaobai River Basin were analyzed.The results show that:①The precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Chaobai River Basin have increased at a rate of 11.02 mm/(10 years)and 9.95 mm/(10 years)respectively from 1979 to 2018.The increasing trend of precipitation in the basin decreases from west to east,while the increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration is opposite,and the risk of drought in the eastern part of the basin becomes greater.②The drought characteristics of the Chaobai River Basin are mainly light and moderate drought.The monthly and seasonal SPEI values show downward trends,and the semi-annual and annual SPEI values show upward trends.From the seasonal drought distribution,spring and summer and winter have the tendencies to become dry,but the trends are not obvious,and the drought situation in autumn has been significantly alleviated.③From the perspective of spatial distribution,the average drought frequency and severity of drought in the basin from 1979 to 2008 were mainly concentrated in the western and southern parts of the Chaobai River Basin.However,from 2009 to 2018,it has reversed.The drought intensity and drought frequency centers appear in the eastern and northern regions of the basin.

关 键 词：气象干旱 CMFD数据 标准化蒸散发指数 彭曼公式 时空变化 潮白河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]