利用CLUE-S模型对四川省未来10年土地利用变化的预测与分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Land Use Change in Sichuan Province in the Next 10 Years Based on CLUE-S Model

作　　者：樊文杰 戴晓爱[1] 谢一茹 高怡凡 FAN Wen-jie;DAI Xiao-ai;XIE Yi-ru;GAO Yi-fan(College of Earth Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China;Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地球科学学院,成都610059 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第7期2641-2647,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：四川省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地四川灾害经济研究中心项目(ZHJJ2021-ZD001);四川高校社科重点研究基地成渝地区双城经济圈科技创新与新经济研究中心项目(CYCX2021ZC34);国家自然科学基金(41901316);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0608);四川省科学技术厅应用基础研究项目(2020YJ0427)。

摘　　要：土地利用配置对生态环境和经济发展有着重要影响,通过研究土地利用配置对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。以中国四川省为研究区,设定了生态效益型、经济效益型和综合效益型3种发展情景,通过CLUE-S模型模拟研究区2030年的土地利用数据,计算了各情景下相应的生态服务价值量和经济效益,分析了3种情景下模拟结果各土地利用类型分布的相同和差异。研究结果表明,生态服务价值量在情景1下达到最大值,为108405.5亿元;经济效益则在情景2下最大,为78346.3亿元。从土地利用空间分布上来看,3种情景的变化趋势基本一致:生态用地中林地和水域的增加主要分布在攀西地区;建设用地的增加主要分布在攀西地区和四川盆地。研究结果可对四川省未来的土地规划管理提供参考。Land use allocation impacts the ecological environment and economic development,also influencing the sustainable development.The CLUE-S model was used to simulate land use change from 2015 to 2030.Taking Sichuan province(China)as a pilot,three scenarios of ecological efficiency,economic efficiency,and comprehensive benefit were developed.Under these three scenarios,the ecosystem service value and economic benefit were calculated.The similarity and difference of land use distribution were also analyzed.The results show that scenario 1 achieves the maximum ecosystem service value,scenario 2 accomplishes the maximum economic benefit,as well as scenario 3 presents the consideration to both ecological and economic aspects.Spatially,the increase of ecological land-use types,specifically,forest land and water body,often occur in the Panxi region.The increase of construction land is ubiquitous in the Panxi region and Sichuan Basin.These results serve as a scientific reference for land planning and management in Sichuan.

关 键 词：CLUE-S模型 土地利用 情景模拟 四川省 

分 类 号：P962[天文地球—自然地理学]