价格总水平温和上涨 保供稳价不放松——2021年我国CPI运行分析及2022年走势预判  

The overall price level rose moderately,ensuring supply and stable prices——CPI analysis in 2021 and forecast in 2022

作　　者：王双进 李燕青 李家晴 Wang Shuangjin;Li Yanqing;Li Jiaqing

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学管理学院 [2]天津商业大学会计学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第1期38-42,86,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(21FJLB027);天津科技计划重点项目(21ZLZKZF00320);天津市人文社科重大项目(2019JWZD48)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：新形势下做好保供稳价工作,确保价格总水平在合理区间运行,对于构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展具有重要意义。首先,本文从不同层面深入分析2021年CPI运行情况和主要特征;接着,从粮食价格、猪肉价格、上下游产品价格传导、翘尾因素等几个方面,分析研判2022年CPI走势变化。研究发现:(1)食品CPI波动主要贡献率来自畜肉、鲜菜和鲜果3个细项;(2)种粮成本上升和国际市场影响推动国内市场粮价稳中有升;(3)上下游产品价格传导推动CPI有所上涨;(4)翘尾因素对全年CPI同比影响由负转正。针对CPI运行情况和影响因素,从合理优化GDP和CPI预期调控目标、进一步完善重要民生商品价格调控机制、积极有效应对大宗商品价格波动、多措并举做好市场预期引导工作等方面提出政策建议。Under the new situation,doing a good job in ensuring supply and price stability and ensuring that the overall price level operates within a reasonable range is of great significance for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development.Firstly,we deeply analyze the operation and main characteristics of CPI in 2021 from different levels;Then,analyze and judge the change of CPI trend in 2022 from the aspects of grain price,pork price,price transmission of upstream and downstream products,tail warping factors and so on.The results show that:(1)the main contribution rate of food CPI fluctuation comes from three sub items:animal meat,fresh vegetables and fresh fruits;(2)The rising cost of grain planting and the influence of the international market have promoted the steady rise of grain prices in the domestic market;(3)The price transmission of upstream and downstream products has promoted the rise of CPI;(4)The year-on-year impact of tail warping factors on the annual CPI changed from negative to positive.In view of the operation and influencing factors of CPI,we put forward policy suggestions from the aspects of reasonably optimizing the expected regulation objectives of GDP and CPI,further improving the price regulation mechanism of important livelihood commodities,actively and effectively coping with commodity price fluctuations,and taking multiple measures to guide market expectations.

关 键 词：CPI 猪肉价格 上下游价格传导 新冠疫情 量化宽松货币政策 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]