CMA-GFS全球预报系统中的台风初始化  

Typhoon initialization in the CMA global forecast system

作　　者：瞿安祥[1,2] 麻素红 张进[1,2] 刘艳 QU Anxiang;MA Suhong;ZHANG Jin;LIU Yan(CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC),Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2022年第2期269-279,共11页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506700、2017YFC15011904)。

摘　　要：在CMA-GFS(CMA Global Forecast System)全球四维变分资料同化系统(4DVar)基础上,参照BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation)方法,建立了一个全球模式台风初始化方案。该方案通过4DVar同化窗口吸收诊断处理后的1 h间隔台风中心定位及中心气压信息,利用模式动力物理约束产生台风环流。同时,考虑到模式对台风的分辨能力,中心气压数据误差采用动态调整技术。2016年西北太平洋22个台风的试验表明,新方案不仅可以促进初始场中台风环流的生成,还可以显著减小CMAGFS全球预报系统的台风路径和强度预报平均误差,具有业务应用前景。A global model typhoon initialization scheme is developed based on the global four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar) of CMA global forecast system(CMA-GFS) with reference to the BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation) method. The scheme assimilates 1 h interval information of typhoon center location and central sea level pressure diagnosed by interpolation method, and generates typhoon circulation using the model dynamic physical constraints within the 4DVar assimilation window. At the same time, errors in the central sea surface pressure are dynamically corrected using a technique that takes into account the model’s ability to describe typhoon circulation. Experiments of 22 typhoon cases that occurred in the Northwest Pacific in 2016 show that the new scheme not only promotes the generation of typhoon circulation in the initial field, but also significantly reduces errors in the mean typhoon track and intensity predicted by the CMA global forecast system. Therefore, this scheme has a potential for operational application.

关 键 词：CMA-GFS全球预报系统 台风初始化 四维变分资料同化系统(4DVar) 台风预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]