中国大陆中强地震复发间隔的概率分布研究  

Distribution research of recurrence interval for moderate-strong earthquake in the mainland of China

作　　者：邓世广 Deng Shiguang(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震科学进展》2022年第4期161-167,共7页Progress in Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2021010502)资助。

摘　　要：地震复发间隔的概率分布是计算地震发生概率的基础。利用我国历史地震目录资料,统计分析中国大陆中强地震归一化区域复发间隔,分析发现中国大陆中强地震活动兼具周期性和丛集性特点。采用对数正态分布与指数分布构建混合概率分布模型,通过最小二乘法拟合混合概率分布函数的最优参数。拟合结果的误差分析表明,混合概率分布模型更加符合中国大陆中强地震的活动特点。Probability distribution of earthquake recurrence interval is the foundation of calculating the occurrence probability of earthquake.Based on the historical earthquake catalog data,the normalized local recurrence intervals of moderate-strong earthquake in the mainland of China are statistically analyzed.It is found that earthquake activity has both periodic and clustering characteristics.We construct a hybrid distribution model using lognormal distribution and exponential distribution,and the optimal parameters of the hybrid distribution model are estimated through least square method.The error analysis demonstrates that the hybrid probability distribution model is more consistent with the characteristic of moderate-strong earthquake activity in the mainland of China.

关 键 词：中强地震 归一化区域复发间隔 概率分布 混合分布模型 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]