新冠肺炎疫情下居民消费结构变动研究  

Study on the Change of Resident Consumption Structure Under COVID-19

作　　者：王琪延 张珊[2] Wang Qiyan;Zhang Shan(School of Statistics,Renmin University of China;Leisure Economy Research Center,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学休闲经济研究中心 [2]中国人民大学统计学院

出　　处：《调研世界》2022年第4期3-14,共12页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“休闲消费对扩大内需的贡献度及政策研究”(21ATJ004)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于新冠肺炎疫情对居民消费水平变化的调查数据,研究了新冠肺炎疫情影响下居民消费结构的跨期变化。理论模型证明,新冠肺炎疫情引发的收入不确定性会带来资金流动性约束加大,居民预防性储蓄增加。消费者异质性也会引起消费结构的变化。分位数回归和分解结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情缩小了收入差距对消费水平的影响,且性别、年龄和婚姻等个体特征对消费结构变化的影响方式不同。因此,本文从维持利率稳定、提高收入水平和细分消费市场三个角度提出提高居民消费水平、升级居民消费结构的政策建议。Based on the survey data of COVID-19 on the change of resident consumption level, we study the cross-temporal change of resident consumption structure under COVID-19. Theoretical model shows that income uncertainty caused by COVID-19 leads to a liquidity trap and increases resident preventative savings.Meanwhile, consumer heterogeneity brings out the change of consumption structure. The results of quantile regression and decomposition show that COVID-19 reduces the impact of income gap on consumption level,and individual characteristics such as gender, age and marital status have different impact on consumption structure change. Therefore, we put forward policy suggestions of maintaining the stability of interest rate,increasing income level, and segmenting the consumer market, to improve the resident consumption level and upgrade the resident consumption structure.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 预防性储蓄 个体特征 消费结构变动 

分 类 号：F063.3[经济管理—政治经济学]