农村人口占比对产业经济的影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Rural Population Proportion on Industrial Economy

作　　者：甄新武[1] ZHEN Xin-wu(College of Science,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071001)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学理学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2022年第8期187-190,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省保定市哲学社会科学规划课题(2020055)。

摘　　要：基于国家数据(National data)1960—2019年的年度数据,构造预测模型和回归模型,利用SPSS 23统计软件,使用两阶段回归方法研究农村人口占比对产业经济的影响。结果表明:农村人口占比对我国的产业经济发展有着重要影响,其中,农村人口占比越大越利于第一产业发展,农村人口占比越小越利于第二、三产业的发展;时间和普通高校毕业生人数对产业经济的影响均小于农村人口占比对产业经济的影响。研究结果对进一步研究新二元经济的结构与经济的发展有重要意义。Based on the annual data of national data from 1960 to 2019,this paper constructs a prediction model and a regression model,uses SPSS 23 statistical software,and uses two-stage regression method to study the impact of rural population proportion on industrial economy.The analysis shows that:The proportion of rural population has an important impact on China’s industrial economic development,in which,the larger the proportion of rural population is,the more conducive to the development of the primary industry,and the smaller the proportion of rural population is,the more conducive to the development of the secondary and tertiary industry.The impact of time and the number of college graduates on the industrial economy is less than that of the proportion of rural population.It is of great significance to further study the structure and economic development of the new dual economy.

关 键 词：农村人口 产业经济 回归分析 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F211[经济管理—国民经济]