2020年以来中印边境对峙的原因、影响及启示  

The Sino-India Border Standoff since 2020:Causes,Impacts and Considerations

作　　者：刘宗义[1,2] Liu Zongyi

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院 [2]中国与南亚合作研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2022年第1期27-47,155,156,共23页South Asian Studies

摘　　要：自2020年5月以来,中印两国在边境地区发生新一轮对峙,并爆发加勒万河谷冲突。边境对峙及冲突是莫迪政府内外政策调整的结果,是中印地缘政治矛盾激化的表现,与新冠肺炎疫情下印度决策者对外战略误判密切相关。中印边境对峙和冲突对双边关系、地区形势和全球局势都产生了深远影响。中印政治关系很难恢复正常,印度坚持推进经济“去中国化”,并在南亚地区强化与中国的竞争。在“印太”地区,中国次要战略方向主要挑战和主要战略方向挑战的融合进一步加深。当前,印度又开始新一轮对外政策回调,但印度不想成为中国的发展伙伴,中印地缘政治矛盾将长期存在,这应成为今后中国制定对印政策的出发点。Since May 2020,a new round of border confrontations has erupted between China and India,the two sides engaging in a bloody conflict in the Galwan Valley.The border standoff and subsequent conflict is a result of the domestic and foreign policy adjustments made by the Modi Administration.This is a sign of a significant escalation of the geo-political conflict between China and India,and is largely a result of miscalculations on the part of Indian decision-makers taken against the backdrop of the global pandemic.The China-India border standoff and subsequent conflict has profound implications for bilateral relations between the two countries,for the region and even for global politics.As a result,it will be very difficult for India and China to re-establish a normal political relationship.India will insist on continuing its economic“de-coupling”with China and will enhance competition with China in South Asia.In the Indo-Pacific arena,China will face further integration of challenges from its secondary and primary strategic directions.At present,India is once again adjusting its foreign policy,but it does not want to become a developmental partner with China.As a result,geo-political contestation between India and China will continue over the long-term.Moving forward,this should be the starting point for Chinese policy-making vis-à-vis India.

关 键 词：中印关系 边境对峙 次要战略方向 主要战略方向 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学] D823[政治法律—外交学]