从“75·8”到“21·7”的思考  

Thinking of Extreme Rainstorms from the August 1975 Event to the July 2021 Event

作　　者：李泽椿 谌芸 王新敏 徐珺 徐国强[2,5] 王月冬[1] 代刊 龚玺 Li Zechun;Chen Yun;Wang Xinmin;Xu Jun;Xu Guoqiang;Wang Yuedong;Dai Kan;Gong Xi(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China;Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China;The Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center,CMA,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海519082 [4]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [5]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [6]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第2期1-13,共13页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41975001);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A16、2021LASW-A11)资助。

摘　　要：2021年7月17日至22日,河南及周边地区出现极端暴雨过程;1975年8月4日至8日,河南及周边地区也发生了特大暴雨洪涝灾害。同一地区历经两次特大暴雨,但两次极端降水过程的预报服务和应急处理等方面却明显不同。组织天气预报业务中相关领域的专家进行研讨,各抒己见,求同存异,从两次极端降水过程的预报服务和影响分析中提出:“75·8”特大暴雨预报和服务欠佳的教训,促使气象部门在暴雨研究、建立数值预报业务系统和大气监测网的建设等方面付出了巨大的努力。“21·7”极端暴雨的成功预报和服务,正是这种努力的必然结果。1978年国家气象中心开始研发亚欧区域短期数值预报模式,20世纪90年代初,建立了我国全球中期天气预报业务系统和有限区域短期数值预报业务系统。2001年以后,中国气象局组织建立了数值预报创新基地,并自主开发建立了新一代多尺度通用的同化与数值预报系统。正是全球中期预报模式,提前5天预报出了“21·7”暴雨过程,区域中尺度模式较好地预报出“21·7”极端暴雨的量级和落区。“21·7”极端暴雨预报服务的成功经验表明,数值预报和预报员的智慧在极端暴雨预报中的作用至关重要,延伸期预报、中期预报特别是5天以内的预报、短时临近预报及有针对性的动态风险评估,是当前预报服务工作的重点。An extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan Province and the surrounding areas during July 17 to 22,2021(shorted as the“21·7”event).The similar extreme rainstorm and flood disaster also happened in Henan Province and the surrounding areas during August 4 to 8,1975(shorted as the“75·8”event).Though the similar extreme precipitation disasters happened in the same region,the forecast service and emergency response to two extremely severe precipitation processes were obviously different.Weather forecasting experts were organized to discuss the forecast service and impact analysis of two extreme events.They tried to seek common points while reserving differences and proposed that the lesson learned from the forecasts and poor services of the“75·8”extreme rainstorm event had prompted the meteorological department to have made great efforts in rainstorm research,including the establishment of numerical weather forecast operational system and the construction of atmospheric monitoring network.The successful prediction and service of the“21·7”extreme rainstorm was the inevitable result of such efforts.In 1978,the National Meteorological Center of China began to develop the short-term numerical forecast model for the Asia-Europe region.In the early 1990s,China Meteorological Administration(CMA)established the global medium-term weather forecast operational system and the regional short-term numerical forecast operational system.Since 2001,CMA has built the numerical weather forecast innovation base,independently developing and establishing a new generation of multi-scale general assimilation and numerical forecasting system.It was the global medium-range forecast model that predicted the“21·7”rainstorm process five days in advance,and the regional model made a better prediction about the intensity and location of the“21·7”extreme rainstorm event.The successful experience of the“21·7”extreme rainstorm forecast service shows that numerical forecast and forecasters’wisdom play a vital role in e

关 键 词：“75·8”极端暴雨 “21·7”极端暴雨 业务数值天气预报 预报员的智慧 预报技术 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]