基于CMA区域集合预报的暴雨灾害风险预估研究——以“21·7”河南暴雨为例  

Study on Rainstorm Disaster Risk Pre-assessment Based on the CMA Regional Ensemble Prediction System——Taking the July 2021 Henan Extreme Torrential Rain as an Example

作　　者：刘扬 唐健 王铸 王莉萍 张霞[2,3] Liu Yang;Tang Jian;Wang Zhu;Wang Liping;Zhang Xia(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;CMA·Henan key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第2期14-19,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2019YFC1510204)。

摘　　要：将CMA区域集合预报与暴雨灾害风险评估模型耦合,以“21·7”河南暴雨事件为例,对比基于控制预报和基于扰动成员的风险预估结果,预估各风险等级概率,并运用集合平均、概率匹配平均法将集合成员集成,探索集合预报在暴雨灾害风险预估中的应用途径和效果。结果表明:基于集合预报的风险预估提示河南北部有超过50%的概率存在暴雨灾害高风险,有10%~30%的概率存在暴雨灾害极高风险,弥补了单一控制预报在河南北部预估偏弱的问题;概率匹配平均比集合平均或单一成员的预估结果更接近真实值,且预报时效越长优势越明显。集合预报能为暴雨灾害风险预估提供更多有效信息。CMA(China Meteorological Administration)Regional Ensemble Prediction System was used as meteorological input to the rainstorm disaster risk assessment model for the case study of the July 2021 extreme torrential rain event in Henan Province.By comparing the risk pre-assessment of control forecast and perturb forecasts,calculating the risk probability,and integrating the pre-assessment members by using ensemble mean method and probability matching mean method,we explore the approach and effect of application of ensemble forecast in rainstorm disaster risk pre-assessment.The results show that the risk pre-assessment based on the ensemble prediction system indicates a high risk of rainstorm disaster in northern Henan with probability of more than 50%and a very high risk there with probability of 10%30%,which makes up for the weak performance of control forecast in Northern Henan.The probability matching means are closer to the real values than the ensemble means or any single member;and the longer the lead time of prediction,the more obvious the advantage.This ensemble prediction system can provide more effective information for rainstorm disaster risk pre-assessment.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害风险 集合预报 概率匹配平均 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]