人因因素海难事故致因组合模式仿真预测研究  

Research on Simulated Prediction of Combined Model for Shipwreck Caused by Human factors

作　　者：李成海[1] 王建涛[1] 陈冰君 胡甚平[2] Li Chenghai;Wang Jiantao;Chen Bingjun;Hu Shenping(Shandong Transport Vocational College,Weifang 261206;Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200120)

机构地区：[1]山东交通职业学院,潍坊261206 [2]上海海事大学商船学院,上海200120

出　　处：《河北交通教育》2022年第1期49-52,57,共5页Hebei Traffic Education

摘　　要：在海运高度发达的新时代,海上交通事故频发,为解决目前海上交通尚未深入到海事事故诱发因素预测难题,采用建立“瑞士奶酪”模型原理的方法,合理利用海上交通事故信息及诱发事故因素的内在机理,结合HFACS方法,建立系统的人因因素海上交通事故诱因分体系,挖掘数据技术人因因素致因海事事故组合模式,利用Bootstrap法对青岛海域人因因素海事诱发因素组合模式仿真预测,预测结果和实际发生海上交通事故相符。实践证明,人因因素海难事故仿真预测,具有针对性的提出防控重点,为船舶航行安全提供了理论依据。Marine traffic accidents occur frequently even in the new era of highly developed sea transportation.However,prediction of inducing factors to accidents remains untapped yet.To cope with this problem,the theory of"Swiss Cheese"model is adopted to make sensible use of maritime traffic accident information and the internal mechanism of inducements.With HFACS method,a systematic inducement sub-system of accidents caused by human factors is established.Meanwhile,data technology is used to work out the combination model of human factors,and the Bootstrap method is also applied to simulate and predict the combination model of human factors and maritime inducing factors in Qingdao sea area.It shows that the results are consistent with real sea traffic accidents.Practice has proved that targeting at key areas of prevention and control,the simulated prediction is able to provide a theoretical basis for safe navigation.

关 键 词：人因因素海难事故 海事事故体系 诱因组合模式 仿真预测 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]