不同碳补贴机制下杉木人工林最优轮伐期和碳汇成本分析  

An analysis of optimal rotation periods and carbon sequestration cost of Chinese fir plantations under different carbon payment mechanisms

作　　者：薛蓓蓓 田国双[1] XUE Beibei;TIAN Guoshuang(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期27-34,共8页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71973021,72003022)。

摘　　要：【目的】探讨不同碳补贴机制下最优轮伐期及碳汇成本的变动规律,为提高碳汇供给和降低碳汇成本提供理论依据。【方法】实地调研福建洋口国有林场杉木人工林经营和营林实践,推导不同碳补贴情境下杉木最优轮伐期和碳汇成本模型,分析立地条件、碳价格、贴现率对最优轮伐期和碳汇成本的影响。【结果】理想情境下,贴现率由2%上涨至7%时,优、中和劣等立地的碳汇成本分别下降了31.42%、32.03%和33.15%,最优轮伐期均缩短4 a。碳价格由20元/t增加至350元/t时,优、中和劣等立地碳汇成本上涨了19.24、19.43和19.38倍,最优轮伐期分别延长了8、9和10 a。年给付情境下,贴现率由2%上涨至7%时,优、中和劣等立地的碳汇成本分别下降了70.35%、70.66%和71.14%,最优轮伐期均缩短4 a。碳价格由20元/t增加至350元/t时,优、中和劣等立地的碳汇成本上涨了15.79、15.82和16.50倍,中等立地和优等立地最优轮伐期均延长1 a,劣等立地最优轮伐期维持不变。【结论】两种碳补贴情境下,碳汇成本和最优轮伐期均与贴现率负相关,与碳价格正相关。在理想情境下,中等立地碳汇成本对碳价格变动的敏感性最强,但在年给付情境下,劣等立地碳汇成本对碳价格变动敏感性最强。总之,在研究区,理想情境更有利于发挥森林生态功能,实现森林生态效益。【Objective】To offer a theoretical basis for improving the supply of carbon sinks and reducing the cost of carbon sequestration, the dynamics of the optimal rotation periods and carbon sequestration costs under different carbon payment mechanisms were explored. 【Method】Based on a survey of management practices for Chinese fir plantations in Yangkou State-owned Forest Farm, Fujian Province, models for the optimal rotation period and carbon sequestration cost of Chinese fir under different carbon subsidy scenarios were derived, and the effects of site conditions, carbon prices and discount rates on the optimal rotation periods and carbon sequestration cost were investigated. 【Result】Under an ideal scenario, when the discount rate increased from 2% to 7%, the carbon sequestration cost of the fertile, general and barren land decreased by 31.42%,32.03% and 33.15%, respectively, the optimal rotation period was shortened by four years. When the carbon price increased from 20 to 350 yuan/t, the carbon sequestration cost of fertile, general and barren land increased by 19.24, 19.43 and 19.38 times, and the optimal rotation period was extended by 8, 9 and 10 years, respectively. Under the annual payment scenario, when the discount rate increased from 2% to 7%, the carbon sequestration cost of fertile, general, and barren land decreased by 70.35%, 70.66% and 71.14%, respectively, and the optimal rotation period was shortened by four years. When the carbon price increased from 20 to 350 yuan/t, the carbon sequestration cost of fertile, general and barren land increased by 15.79, 15.82 and 16.50 times, respectively. The optimal rotation periods for both general and fertile land extended for one year;but remained unchanged for the barren land. 【Conclusion】Under the two scenarios of carbon subsidy, both carbon sequestration costs and optimal rotation periods were negatively correlated with the discount rate and positively correlated with the carbon price. The carbon sequestration cost of general land is the most

关 键 词：林地期望价 碳补贴 最优轮伐期 碳汇成本 杉木人工林 

分 类 号：S7-9[农业科学—林学]