集团型城市燃气公司经济评价要点  

Key points in the economic evaluation on enterprise group city gas companies

作　　者：高振[1] 赵思思[1] 陈思韵 GAO Zhen;ZHAO Sisi;CHEN Siyun(CNOOC Gas and Power Group,Beijing 100028,China;Chengdu Compressor Branch,CNPC Jichai Power Company Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]中海石油气电集团有限责任公司,北京100028 [2]中国石油集团济柴动力有限公司成都压缩机分公司,四川成都610000

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2022年第2期56-60,共5页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：随着国家油气体制改革和政策放开,国内城市燃气行业进入新一轮的并购机遇期,如何科学评价集团型城市燃气公司的经济效益变得愈发重要。为了科学衡量集团型城市燃气公司的经济效益,从项目层面、股权层面、股利层面等进行经济评价,并通过对影响城市燃气业务效益的主要运营影响因素,即评价期的确定、主营业务收入的确定、毛利率的确定与政策因素影响、费用估算、资本性支出,融资及分红率因素等进行论述,最后从评价口径的选择方面对现金流量法的应用进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)应建立不同视角的现金流量模型进行全面分析,作为投资决策综合判断的依据;(2)业务预测应符合全面性原则和真实性原则,充分考虑各项尽职调查批示的风险,兼顾历史运营逻辑和运营实际,确保未来预测符合公司运营实质和发展预期;(3)业务预测主要影响因素应结合特许经营权、行业发展现状及预期、产业政策、历史运营数据、尽职调查等不同要素进行逐项分析确定;(4)合并口径模式更加符合集团型公司组织结构复杂、业务模式复杂的特点。With oil and gas system reform as well policy liberalization,the domestic city gas industry faces with a new round of merger opportunity.So,how to scientifically evaluate the economic benefits in group city gas companies is increasingly important.In order to measure the benefits,some economic evaluation was implemented from the perspective of project,stake,and dividend levels.Then,the main factors influencing the benefits were summarized,including operation factors(such as determination of evaluation period,determination of main business income,and determination of gross profit margin),policy factors,cost estimation,capital expenditure,financing,and dividend rate.Finally,the application of cash flow method was analyzed from the aspect of the selection of evaluation caliber.Results show that(1)a model of cash flow with different perspectives shall be established to provide the basis for the comprehensive judgment of investment decision making;(2)the business forecast shall comply with the principles of comprehensiveness and authenticity,take full consideration of the risks instructed by each due diligence,give consideration to both historical operation logic and operation reality,and ensure the conformity of future forecast to the operation essence and development expectation in these companies;(3)the main influencing factors of business forecast shall be analyzed and determined one by one based on such factors as franchise rights,industry development status and expectation,industrial policies,historical operation data,and due diligence;and(4)another model of consolidated caliber is more accordant with the characteristics of enterprise group companies,i.e.,complex organization structure and business mode.

关 键 词：城市燃气 并购 现金流量法 经济评价 经济效益 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济] F272.5