乡村振兴中防止低收入人口返贫的战略构想  

A Strategic Conception of Solving the Problem of Low-income Population in Rural Vitalization Based on Spatial Features

作　　者：孙久文[1] 张皓[1] Sun Jiuwen;Zhang Hao

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《学术研究》2022年第4期87-95,177,178,共11页Academic Research

基　　金：北京社会科学基金重点项目“全面建成小康社会后中国减贫战略研究”(20JJA003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在乡村振兴中,以防止低收入人口返贫为目标构建相应的战略体系和政策内容,对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文基于2014—2018年829个原国家级贫困县和“片区县”的贫困发生率及其群体特征数据,运用时空地理加权回归模型,从全局视角分析以低收入人口特征为变量的空间格局,并运用基于回归方程的夏普利值分解测算对应贡献率,以此构建“防止返贫难易指数”,划分防止返贫帮扶空间,最终提出在乡村振兴中防止低收入人口返贫的战略构想。本文认为,在接续欠发达地区乡村振兴阶段,要保障以妇女、儿童、病患等为代表的低收入人口具备防止返贫和实现自我发展的能力,并以西部和东北欠发达地区为帮扶重点,形成以两层四类为标准构建的围绕产业、就业、生活、基本公共服务等多方面综合保障的战略制度体系。After the great victory of poverty alleviation,the goal in rural vitalization is to solve the problem of low-income population and construct the corresponding strategic system and policy content,which has great theoretical and practical significance.This article is based on the data of poverty incidence and group characteristics of 829 former national-level poor counties and“district counties”from 2014 to 2018.Using the GTWR model to analyze the spatial pattern with low-income demographic characteristics as a variable from a global perspective,and use the Sharpley value decomposition based on the regression equation to measure the corresponding contribution rate.In this way,the“prevention of poverty return index”is constructed and the space for preventing return to poverty is divided,and finally a strategic concept for solving the problem of low-income population in rural vitalization is proposed.This article believes that in the continuation of rural vitalization in underdeveloped areas,it is necessary to ensure that the low-income population represented by women,children,and patients have the ability to prevent poverty and achieve self-development.And with the underdeveloped areas in the west and northeast as the focus of assistance,a two-tier and four-category system has been established to form a comprehensive security strategic system around industry,employment,life,and basic public services.It is of great strategic significance to realize the all-round development of low-income population in the stage of rural vitalization.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 低收入人口 防止返贫 帮扶空间 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] C979[经济管理—劳动经济]