基于事故机理的城市公路隧道运营风险因素探究  

Study on Risk Factors of Urban Highway Tunnel Operation Based on Accident Mechanism

作　　者：梁铭轩 赵强 刘梅[3] 廖彬超[1] LIANG Mingxuan;ZHAO Qiang;LIU Mei;LIAO Binchao(Department of Construction Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100082;Beijing Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100082;School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616)

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100082 [2]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100082 [3]北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院,北京102616

出　　处：《公路交通技术》2022年第2期110-117,共8页Technology of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878382);北京市特长地下道路防灾、减灾体系关键技术研究项目(BJJTW-2021-JCSS-12)。

摘　　要：为减少隧道运营期事故的发生,基于国内外190个公路隧道典型事故案例,识别并提取56项风险因素。针对风险因素,邀请专家评估其可能诱发的事故类型、事故发生概率、事故危险程度,并使用K-Means聚类分析方法实现风险因素分级。主要结果为:1)针对不同事故类型,实现风险因素的“概率-危险程度”分级;2)针对不同事故层次,实现风险因素“概率-危险程度”分级。研究结果将为实际运营管理工作提供分级排查风险因素的可能性。In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents during tunnel operation,56 risk factors were identified and extracted based on 190 typical road tunnel accidents at home and abroad.The experts were invited to evaluate the accident type,accident probability and accident risk degree induced by the risk factors.The risk factors were classified by K-Means clustering analysis method.The main results are as follows:1)according to different accident types,the"probability-danger degree"classification of risk factors is realized;2)according to different accident levels,the"probability-danger degree"classification of risk factors is realized.The results will provide hierarchical screening probabilities of risk factors for operation and management.

关 键 词：城市公路隧道 聚类分析算法 风险因素分级 事故类型 事故层次 

分 类 号：U459.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]