中部地区碳排放测度及其驱动因素动态特征研究  

Research on the Measurement of Carbon Emissions and Dynamic Characteristics of Its Driving Factors in Central Regions of China

作　　者：杨振[1] 李泽浩 YANG Zhen;LI Zehao(Department of Economics,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校经济学部,北京100091

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第5期13-20,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“适应高质量发展的地方政府竞争机制优化研究”(21BJL033)。

摘　　要：为更好制定中部地区碳排放削减策略,对中部六省2007—2018年能源消费产生的碳排放量进行估算,论文从能源结构、能源效率、产业结构、经济增长、城镇化率以及人口规模六个指标出发,构建碳排放测度及其驱动因素的灰色面板关联模型。在对中部地区碳排放与经济增长脱钩整体状况分析的基础上,分别测算碳排放量与其驱动因素的时序灰色关联度和截面灰色关联度,并分省解析碳排放驱动因素的动态变化。结果显示:中部六省碳排放与驱动因素关联度由大到小依次为人口规模、城镇化率、能源结构、产业结构、能源效率、经济增长;经济增长和城镇化率等驱动因素是影响各省碳排放总量的核心因素,而产业结构等驱动因素则因各省具体经济条件和发展水平不同呈现出差异化特征;近年来,中部地区驱动因素对碳排放量的影响整体变得稳定。以上结论为促进中部地区节能减排、构建绿色发展道路提供了可靠的经验证据。In order to formulate better carbon emission reduction strategies in the central regions,the paper estimates the carbon emissions due to energy consumption in this area between 2007 and 2018.Based on energy consume structure,energy efficiency,industrial structure,economic growth,urbanization rate and population size,a grey panel correlation model on carbon emission and its driving factors was constructed.The paper analyses the overall situation of the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth in the central regions,meanwhile,the time series and cross section grey correlation degrees between carbon emissions and their driving factors are also calculated.The paper describes the dynamic changes of carbon emission driving factors by provinces.The results show that the driving factors of carbon emission in six central provinces are gradually weaken,ranks as population size,urbanization rate,energy structure,industrial structure,energy efficiency and economic growth.The driving factors such as economic growth and urbanization rate are the core factors that affect the carbon emission in each province,while the driving factors such as industrial structure show different characteristics depending on the specific economic conditions and development level of each province.In recent years,the driving factors in the central regions have become stable,and these conclusions provide reliable empirical evidence for the central regions to build an energy saving and green development path.

关 键 词：中部地区 碳排放 驱动因素 灰色关联度 面板数据 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]