中美俄战略三角结构变化对中国能源产业的影响  

Influences of U.S.-Sino-Russian Strategic Triangle's Structural Changes on China's Energy Industry

作　　者：毛若冰 Mao Ruobing(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2022年第4期16-21,27,共7页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：步入2022年,俄乌局势高度紧张,向全球地缘政治投下了一枚重磅炸弹,将冷战后因美国轻视俄罗斯而长期弃置的中美俄战略三角重新推上风口浪尖。文章将聚焦中美俄战略三角关系,分析美国、中国、俄罗斯进入全新历史阶段,在受到中美作为崛起国和霸主国的结构性矛盾制约下,将作出的战略选择可能。基于三人博弈,系统性研究27种情景下的中美俄三角结构及收益情况,对其中帕累托最优态及两种典型情景进行分析,指出当前情景下中美俄三角结构及收益情况,对未来中美俄三角结构变化做出3种情景研判,并分析其对中国能源产业的影响。Entering the year of 2022,the Russia-Ukraine war has thrown a bombshell into global geopolitics,which brought the U.S.-Sino-Russian strategic triangle that has been scrapped by American leaders after the end of the Cold War back to the teeth of the storm.This essay highlights the U.S.-Sino-Russian strategic triangle,in the historical background where the structural competition between the U.S.and China has become the main contradiction of world politics,aiming to analyze the strategic choices that would be made by leaders of the U.S.,China and Russia.Based on principle of tri-game,the author systematically analyzes 27 possible scenarios of U.S.-Sino-Russian triangular structure,especially concentrating on three special scenarios,while researching on current situation and results of the three-nation game.Lastly,three conceivable future scenarios as well as their influences on China’s energy industry are predicted,along with the corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：能源产业 地缘政治 战略三角 中美俄 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系] F426.2[政治法律—政治学]