恐怖主义“洼地效应”与巴基斯坦的反恐策略  

The Relationship between the“Lowland Effect”of Terrorism and the Anti-terrorism Strategy of Pakistan

作　　者：孔亮 KONG Liang

机构地区：[1]战略支援部队信息工程大学洛阳校区

出　　处：《南亚东南亚研究》2022年第2期94-106,156,共14页South and Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：“9·11”事件后,美国发动阿富汗战争,塔利班和基地组织的部分成员外逃至巴基斯坦联邦直辖部落区。他们与当地的部落民兵和宗教极端组织结盟,共同反对巴基斯坦政府“助美反恐”,频繁实施暴力恐怖活动并大力宣扬极端主义意识形态,挑战政府权威,使联邦直辖部落区及其周边区域沦为“恐怖主义洼地”。受其影响,俾路支分离主义组织也将暴力恐怖活动作为实现政治诉求的主要手段,进一步扩大了“洼地效应”的作用范围。面对这一局面,巴基斯坦政府在2001-2008年期间对恐怖分子进行武力打击,而后与其进行谈判,寻求和解。然而,这种反恐策略收效甚微,却打击了民众的反恐意志,令“洼地效应”继续强化,以至于恐怖主义威胁到了巴基斯坦的政治中心。鉴于安全形势急剧恶化,巴基斯坦政府在2009年后调整了反恐策略,加强了对恐怖分子的武力打击,同时注重制定、推行反恐政策。在新策略的指导下,巴基斯坦政府从人力和物力两方面削弱恐怖组织的实力,压缩其生存空间并与其争夺意识形态领域的话语权,从而逐步弱化了恐怖主义“洼地效应”,改善了安全局势。After 9·11,the United States launched the War in Afghanistan,and some members of Taliban and Al-Qaeda fled.Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA),which are relatively suitable for their survival and development in terms of location,ethnic group,history and culture,is the main destination.After entering FATA,they allied with local tribal militias and religious extremist organizations and jointly opposed to the behavior of“helping America counter terrorism”of Pakistan.So they conducted violent terrorist activities frequently,propagated ideology of extremism vigorously and challenged the authority of Pakistani government.Finally,they turned FATA and the surrounding areas into“lowland of terrorism”.Affected by them,Baloch separatist organizations also take violent terrorist activity as the main method to achieve political demands,resulting in the expansion of“lowland effect”.Faced with this situation,the Pakistani government chose to retaliate against terrorists forcibly from 2001 to 2008,and then negotiated with them to seek reconciliation.In view of the sharp deterioration of security situation,Pakistani government adjusted its anti-terrorism strategy after 2009.It strengthened the force against terrorists and paid attention to the formulation and implementation of anti-terrorism policies.Under the guidance of the new strategy,Pakistani government weakened the strength of terrorist organizations from the aspects of human and material resources,compressed their living space and competed with them for the power of discourse in the ideological field,thus weakened the“lowland effect”of terrorism and improved the security situation gradually.

关 键 词：恐怖主义 洼地效应 联邦直辖部落区 俾路支省 反恐策略 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]