贸易政策不确定性、金融市场化与企业创新型发展:兼论金融市场化协同效应  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Financial Marketization and Firms'Innovative Development:The Synergy Effects of Financial Marketization

作　　者：司登奎 李小林[2] 孔东民[3] 江春[4] SI Dengkui;LI Xiaolin;KONG Dongmin;JIANG Chun(Qingdao University,266061;Ocean University of China,266100;Huazhong University of Science and Technology,430074;Wuhan University,430072)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,266061 [2]中国海洋大学经济学院,266100 [3]华中科技大学经济学院,430074 [4]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072

出　　处：《财贸经济》2022年第4期53-70,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“创新驱动发展战略下全面塑造发展新优势的路径研究”(21ZDA010);“泰山学者”工程专项经费资助项目(tsqn202103054);山东省自然科学基金青年项目“房价波动、系统性金融风险与‘双支柱’政策协调机制研究”(ZR2019QG010);。

摘　　要：本文试图从金融市场化视角为应对贸易政策不确定性冲击以引领企业创新型发展提供可行性诠释,选取2003—2018年中国非金融类上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了贸易政策不确定性对企业创新绩效的影响,重点探究了不同类型的金融市场化及其协同组合在弱化贸易政策不确定性冲击并促进企业创新型发展中所发挥的作用。经验证据表明,贸易政策不确定性增加不利于企业创新,单一的利率市场化和资本账户开放无法抑制贸易政策不确定性对企业创新的负向冲击,但二者与汇率市场化协同搭配能够有效弱化这一负向冲击。特别地,上述效应在高融资约束、高制度质量和资本密集型地区的企业中尤为明显。在机制上,提高信贷筛选能力、投资者锚定效应和公司治理效率是金融市场化降低贸易政策不确定性对企业创新负向冲击的重要渠道。因此,协同推进金融市场化改革有利于平滑贸易政策频繁变动带来的非预期外部冲击,进而对促进实体经济创新型发展具有重要的实践指导意义。This paper attempts to provide a feasible interpretation for weakening the impact of trade policy uncertainty from the perspective of deepening financial marketization and promoting the innovative development of enterprises.Using data on China's non-financial listed firms from 2003 to 2018,this paper empirically examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the innovation performance of firms,and explores the potential role of different types of financial marketization and their synergy in weakening the impact of trade policy uncertainty and promoting the innovative development of firms.The results show that rising trade policy uncertainty is not conducive to the improvement of enterprise innovation performance.The interest rate marketization and capital account openness cannot restrain the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty,but the combination of the two types of financial marketization and exchange rate marketization can effectively weaken such negative impact.In particular,the above effects are prominent in firms with high financing constraints,high institutional quality and in capital-intensive areas.For the mechanism,improving credit screening ability,investor anchoring effect and corporate governance efficiency provides important channels for financial marketization to weaken the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on firm innovation.Therefore,jointly promoting financial marketization reform is conducive to countering the unexpected external shock caused by frequent changes in trade policy,and hence to promoting innovative development of the real economy.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 金融市场化 创新绩效 

分 类 号：F83O.2[经济管理—金融学]