考虑多重不确定性因素的售电公司购售电决策模型  

Decision-making Model of Electricity Procurement and Sale for Electricity Retailers Considering Multiple Uncertain Factors

作　　者：李雅婷 唐家俊 张思 徐立中 张智 杨莉[1] LI Yating;TANG Jiajun;ZHANG Si;XU Lizhong;ZHANG Zhi;YANG Li(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310007,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网湖南省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,湖南省长沙市410007 [3]国网浙江省电力有限公司,浙江省杭州市310007

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2022年第7期33-41,共9页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211LS2000JS)的资助。

摘　　要：售电公司参与市场交易面临着负荷、现货价格及需求响应等多重不确定性,综合考虑多重不确定性因素并根据其特点进行建模有利于提高购售电决策的有效性。首先,提出分时电价下计及用电成本满意度和用电舒适满意度的可转移负荷响应优化模型;其次,考虑用户响应行为的不确定性,建立基于模糊隶属度函数和消费者心理学的可削减负荷响应模型;然后,分别采用概率密度函数和场景法对负荷和现货价格进行模拟,以预期利润和条件风险损失综合效用最大化为目标,建立包含购电组合、售电定价、可削减负荷调用及补偿等决策的售电公司综合决策与风险评估模型,通过模糊机会约束的等价转换将模型转化为确定性优化问题进行求解。算例仿真分析了风险偏好和不确定性因素对售电公司决策的影响,验证了模型的有效性。Electricity retailers face multiple uncertainties such as load,spot price and demand response when participating in market transactions.Comprehensively considering multiple uncertainties and modeling according to their characteristics are conducive to improve the effectiveness of electricity procurement and sale decision-making.First,a response optimization model of transferable load under time of use tariff is proposed,which takes into account the satisfaction with electricity cost and electricity consumption comfort.Then,considering the uncertainty of user response behavior,a reducible load response model based on fuzzy membership function and consumer psychology is established.Next,the probability density function and scenario method are used to simulate the load and spot price,respectively.Aiming at maximizing the comprehensive utility of expected profit and conditional risk loss,a comprehensive decision-making and risk assessment model of electricity retailers including power procurement portfolio,power sale pricing,reducible load deployment and compensation is constructed.The model is transformed into a deterministic optimization problem for solution by equivalent transformation of fuzzy chance constraints.The influences of risk preference and uncertainties on the decision-making of electricity retailers are simulated and analyzed,and the effectiveness of the model is verified.

关 键 词：购售电决策 不确定性 需求响应 模糊隶属度函数 条件风险价值 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F274