虚拟水进口视角下中美农产品贸易效益分析  

Analysis on the Benefits of Sino-US Agricultural Products Trade from the Perspective of Virtual Water Import

作　　者：李明 潘子纯 李崇光[1] LI Ming;PAN Zichun;LI Chongguang

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《世界农业》2022年第5期48-59,共12页World Agriculture

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目“新形势下我国粮食安全与水资源保障重大问题研究”(20JZD015);湖北省普通高校人文社会科学研究基地2020年开放课题“我国农业虚拟水贸易稳定性与对策研究”(202014504)。

摘　　要：本文基于虚拟水进口视角,结合比较优势理论和资源替代理论,分析了2001—2020年中国对美国主要农产品的进口结构和动态变化,测算出主要农产品的虚拟水进口量,并从经济-资源-社会的视角分析其进口效益。结果发现:①中国对美国农产品的进口规模整体呈“波动发展”的特征,而中美贸易摩擦对中国进口美国农产品造成一定的不利影响。②玉米油和豆油虚拟水含量最高,其次是猪肉、菜籽油和鲜奶,而甜菜和蔬菜虚拟水含量最少;谷物和食用油籽在中国对美国农产品的虚拟水进口中扮演主要角色。③对美国农产品的虚拟水进口给中国带来较大的经济效益、资源效益和社会效益。不仅可以优化行业水资源配置、创造更大的经济产值,而且能够节约国内水资源,有利于改善人民生活水平、推动产业结构优化升级和促进经济高质量发展。据此,本文建议适度增加对美国部分农产品的进口,优化对美国农产品进口结构;同时,合理配置水资源,提升水资源利用效率。Based on the perspective of virtual water import,combined with the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of resource substitution,this paper analyzes the import structure and dynamic changes of China’s major agricultural products in the United States from 2001 to 2020,and calculates the virtual water import volume of major agricultural products.The resource-society perspective analyzes its import benefits.The results show that:①The overall scale of China’s imports of agricultural products from the United States is characterized by“fluctuating development”,and the Sino-US trade friction has a certain negative impact on China’s imports of American agricultural products.②Corn oil and soybean oil have the highest virtual water content,followed by pork,rapeseed oil and fresh milk,while sugar beets and vegetables have the least virtual water content;grains and edible oilseeds play a major role in China’s virtual water imports of agricultural products from the United States.③The virtual water import of United States agricultural products brings great economic,resource and social benefits to China.It can not only optimize the allocation of water resources in the industry and create greater economic output value,but also save domestic water resources,which is conducive to improving people’s living standards,promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures,and promoting high-quality economic development.Accordingly,this paper proposes to moderately increase the import of some agricultural products to the United States and optimize the import structure of agricultural products to the United States;at the same time,rationally allocate water resources and improve the efficiency of water resources utilization.

关 键 词：虚拟水进口 中美农产品贸易 贸易效益 水资源 

分 类 号：F757.12[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.7