1979—2019年影响中国沿海的热带气旋与ENSO变化关系初探  

A preliminary study on the relationship between tropical cyclones affecting the coastal areas of China and ENSO during 1979—2019

作　　者：于茜倩 谢冬梅[1] 陈永平[1] 朱业[2] YU Qianqian;XIE Dongmei;CHEN Yongping;ZHU Ye(College of Harbour,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Zhejiang Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center,Hangzhou 310007,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江杭州310007

出　　处：《海洋通报》2022年第1期29-38,共10页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室开放基金(201908);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B210202020,B200204017)。

摘　　要：采用1979—2019年热带气旋最佳路径资料,分析影响中国沿海的热带气旋的时空演变特征,并结合Ni?o3.4指数、海表温度和海洋上层热容量资料,对热带气旋与ENSO变化关系进行初步探讨。结果表明,近40年来影响中国沿海的热带气旋经历了1990年代减弱,2000年代增强的变化过程,且在2000年以后呈现显著向岸迁移趋势。影响中国沿海的热带气旋与表征ENSO的Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年发生突变,具体表现为ACE与Ni?o3.4指数在2000年前呈显著正相关,2000年后二者相关性明显下降。通过将ACE分解成平均强度ACE;、持续时间ACE;和频数ACE;这三个分量,发现2000年前Ni?o3.4指数与平均强度ACE;呈显著正相关,但2000年后Ni?o3.4指数与ACE;相关关系减弱,这可能是导致ACE与Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年左右发生突变的主要原因。持续时间ACE;与Ni?o3.4指数一直保持显著正相关,频数ACE;则与Ni?o3.4指数不存在显著线性相关关系。分析影响中国沿海的热带气旋活动与海表温度异常和海洋上层热容量异常在空间上的相关性,所得结果可以证实以上结论。Tropical cyclones are one of the most devastating natural disasters in terms of their average destructiveness and annual frequency affecting coastal regions.By using the best-track dataset of tropical cyclones,Ni?o3.4 index,sea surface temperature,upper ocean heat content and other indices of tropical cyclone activities were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variability of typhoon activities affecting the coast of China during 1979—2019.The Accumulated Cyclone Energy(ACE),mean intensity and lifetime variables of tropical cyclones presented strong interdecadal variations,decreasing in the 1990s and increasing in the 2000s.Coastal migration of tropical cyclone activities was also identified after 2000 in the CMA besttrack dataset.The ACE and Ni?o3.4 index presented positive correlation before 2000,with larger ACE value in El Ni?o years and smaller value in La Ni?a years.However,the correlation between ACE and Ni?o3.4 index experienced an abrupt decrease around the year of 2000.After 2000,variations in the ACE were not synchronized with Ni?o3.4 index,which may be mainly contributed by the mean intensity(ACE;)variation.While the duration of tropical cyclones(ACE;)was significantly modulated by the sea surface temperature anomalies in Ni?o3.4 regions,the frequency of tropical cyclones(ACE;)was not linearly correlated with that.The result was confirmed by analyzing the spatial distribution of the correlation between tropical cyclones affecting the coast of China and sea surface temperature anomalies as well as upper ocean heat content anomalies.

关 键 词：热带气旋 累积气旋能量 ENSO 海表温度 海洋上层热容量 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学]