环境税能否倒逼产业结构优化与升级?——基于环境“费改税”的准自然实验  

Can environmental taxes force industrial structure optimization and upgrading? A quasi-natural experiment based on environmental “Fee to Tax”

作　　者：黄纪强 祁毓[1] HUANG Jiqiang;QI Yu(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2022年第2期1-13,共13页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173136);中央高校基本科研业务费博士研究生科研创新项目(202210408)。

摘　　要：发展绿色低碳经济,促进产业结构优化与升级,是建设现代化经济体系的必然要求。采用2003—2019年30个省市287个地级市平衡面板数据,构造强度双重差分模型检验环境税政策是否能有效倒逼产业结构优化与升级,并探讨了环境税政策的异质性影响特征及传导路径。实证研究发现:环境税政策显著推动了产业结构高级化,对产业结构合理化的政策效应还未体现,通过一系列稳健性检验并排除相关政策干扰后发现结论依旧成立。机制分析得出:环境税政策通过提高科技创新投入、吸引外商直接投资和强化税收征管助力产业结构升级。异质性视角发现:环境税政策显著促进了东部地区产业结构高级化,对产业结构合理化影响不显著,对中西部地区产业结构高级化和合理化影响均不显著。研究结果为促进经济高质量发展、合理优化环境税政策、推动产业结构优化与升级提供理论支撑和政策建议。The development of a green and low-carbon economy to promote industrial structure optimization and upgrading is an inescapable requirement for building a modernized economic system.This study uses balanced panel data of 287 cities in 30 of China’s provinces from 2003 to 2019,constructs an intensity difference-in-differences model to test whether an environmental tax policy can effectively ensure the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures,and explores the heterogeneous effect and transmission paths of environmental tax policies.The empirical results show that environmental tax policies significantly promote the industrial-structure advancement,but the policy effect of the industrial-structure rationalization has not yet manifested;the findings hold through a series of robustness tests.The mechanism test finds that environmental tax policy promotes industrial-structure upgrading through increasing investment in science and technology innovation,attracting foreign direct investment,and enhancing tax levying and management.Concerning heterogeneity,environmental tax policies significantly promote industrial-structure advancement in the eastern region but have insignificant effects on industrial-structure rationalization,neither advancement nor rationalization is significant for the central and western regions.This study provides theoretical support and policy recommendations for boosting high-quality economic development,rationalizing and optimizing environmental tax policies,and promoting industrial structure optimization and upgrading.

关 键 词：环境税 产业结构高级化 产业结构合理化 科技创新 外商直接投资 税收征管 强度双重差分 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]