2种茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法的对比  

Accuracy comparison of two methods for dynamic yield prediction of Brassica juncea var.tumida

作　　者：武强 唐余学 闫梦玲 张悦 孙恩虹 范莉 方丽 WU Qiang;TANG Yu-xue;YAN Meng-ling;ZHANG Yue;SUN En-hong;FAN Li;FANG Li(Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Agrometeorology and Satellite Remote Sensing,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Jiangjin Modern Agrometeorology Test Station,Chongqing 402260,China;Yongchuan Meteorological Bureau,Chongqing 402181,China;Changshou Metereological Bureau,Chongqing 401220,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [2]重庆市农业气象与卫星遥感工程技术研究中心,重庆401147 [3]重庆市江津现代农业气象试验站,重庆402260 [4]重庆市永川区气象局,重庆402181 [5]重庆市长寿区气象局,重庆401220

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2022年第2期486-494,共9页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175193);重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项项目(cstc2020jscx-msxmX0111);中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ2021J073);重庆市气象部门智慧气象技术创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-202016);重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-201905);重庆市气象局科技计划项目(QNJJ-201703)。

摘　　要：旨在以涪陵茎瘤芥为例,基于气候适宜度指数与历史丰歉气象影响指数2种方法建立产量丰歉动态预报模型,比较2种茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法的准确性。结果显示,2种方法均具有较高的单产预报准确率,在茎瘤芥产量的动态预报中,基于气候适宜度指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法的最低单产预报准确率为88.7%,最高单产预报准确率为99.9%;基于历史丰歉气象影响指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法的最低单产预报准确率为88.9%,最高单产预报准确率为99.7%,准确率极值差异较小。对比不同年份各起报日期的平均单产预报准确率可知,基于历史丰歉气象影响指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法得出的单产预报准确率优于基于气候适宜度指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法。对比同一年份不同起报日期的平均单产预报准确率可知,起报时间在1月1日及之前的预报准确率最高。在有限验证年份内,对比单产预报结果与历年实际单产发现,基于历史丰歉气象影响指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法在产量趋势预报及大多数年份的单产预报准确率方面,均表现为优于基于气候适宜度指数的茎瘤芥产量丰歉动态预报方法的预报效果。In this study,the dynamic yield prediction models were established based on the climatic suitability index and the meteorological influence index of historical yield,and the accuracy of the two yield prediction methods was compared.The two methods had high accuracy.In the dynamic prediction based on climatic suitability index,the lowest yield forecast accuracy was 88.7%,and the highest yield forecast accuracy was 99.9%.In the dynamic prediction based on the meteorological influence index of historical yield,the lowest yield forecast accuracy was 88.9%,and the highest yield forecast accuracy was 99.7%.By comparing the average yield per unit area in different years and starting dates,the accuracy of dynamic yield prediction of Brassica juncea var.tumida based on meteorological influence index of historical yield was better than that based on climatic suitability index.By comparing the average yield per unit area in the same year with different starting dates,the accuracy was the highest on and before January 1.Comparing the forecast results of yield per unit area and the actual output value in the limited validation years,the dynamic forecast method of yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida based on the meteorological influence index of historical yield was better in the forecast of yield trend and the accurate forecast value of yield per unit area in most years.

关 键 词：茎瘤芥产量预报 气候适宜度指数 历史丰歉气象影响指数 

分 类 号：S165.27[农业科学—农业气象学]