基于医疗行为的新型传染病传播模型仿真研究  

Simulation Study on New Infectious Disease Transmission Model Based on Medical Behavior

作　　者：黄丽 叶春明[1] HUANG Li;YE Chun-ming(Bussiness School University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;School of Intelligent Manufacturing Panzhihua University,Panzhihua Sichuan 617000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]攀枝花学院智能制造学院,四川攀枝花617000

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2022年第3期290-296,324,共8页Computer Simulation

基　　金：上海市科委“科技创新行动计划”软科学重点项目(20692104300);国家自然科学基金项目(71840003);上海理工大学科技发展项目(2018KJFZ043);攀枝花学院重点培育项目(035000717);攀枝花市级指导性科技计划项目(2021ZD-G-13)。

摘　　要：针对医疗行为干预下的传染病传播问题,基于新型传染病特征分析,提出基于医疗行为的多态元胞自动机模型进行仿真研究。采用“接触式邻体传染”模拟“严防严控”情景下的病毒传播过程,增加“非邻体高斯传染”模拟“复工复产”情景下的病毒传播过程;研究医疗行为变量“诊断”,“收治”和“疫苗注射”在两种情景下对病毒传播过程的影响及其系统防控绩效。以新型冠状病毒肺炎COVID-19为例,仿真结果显示,在医疗行为下的病毒传播特征、规律及其行为有效性,能够为政府增强社会防疫管控效力提供仿真推演和策略支持。Based on the analysis of the characteristics of new infectious diseases,a multi-state cellular automata model based on medical behavior is proposed to simulate the spread of infectious diseases under the intervention of medical behaviors.Firstly,the"contact neighbor infection"was used to simulate the virus transmission process under the"strict prevention and strict control"scenario,on which,the"non neighbor Gauss infection"was added to simulate the virus transmission process under the"resumption of work and production"scenario.Then the effects of medical behavior variables"diagnosis","treatment"and"vaccination"on the transmission process of the virus and the performance of epidemic prevention and control were studied.Taking the novel coronavirus pneumonia COVID-19 as an example,the simulation results show that the virus transmission characteristics,rules and behavior validity under the medical behavior can provide simulation deduction and strategic support for the government to enhance the effectiveness of social epidemic prevention and control.

关 键 词：严防严控 复工复产 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]