河北省低平原区旱作谷子产量影响因素及发展规模分析  

Analysis on Influencing Factors and Development Scale of Dry Cultivated Millet Yield in Low Plain Area of Hebei Province

作　　者：刘朋程 郝洪波[1] 郭安强[1] 崔海英[1] 王倩 李新 张书存 李明哲[1] LIU Peng-cheng;HAO Hong-bo;GUO An-qiang;CUI Hai-ying;WANG Qian;LI Xin;ZHANG Shu-cun;LI Ming-zhe(Institute of Dry Farming,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences/Key Lab of Crop Drought Tolerance Research of Hebei Province,Hengshui 053000,China;Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Jingxian,Jingxian 053500,China;Taocheng District Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Hengshui,Hengshui 053000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省农林科学院旱作农业研究所/河北省农作物抗旱研究重点实验室,河北衡水053000 [2]景县农业农村局,河北景县053500 [3]衡水市桃城区农业农村局,河北衡水053000

出　　处：《河北农业科学》2022年第2期9-15,共7页Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(CARS-06-13.5-B3);河北省科学技术厅重点研发项目(20326321D)。

摘　　要：为节约农业用水、涵养水源,减少河北省地下水开采,探讨了旱作条件下不同年份、不同地点河北省谷子产量的差异和影响因素,以及河北省地区谷子旱作模式发展规模的可行性。以冀谷19为试材,2012~2016年连续5 a在衡水、石家庄、沧州、邯郸、保定5个试点对旱作条件下的谷子产量差异进行了比较,以明确影响谷子产量的主要气象因子;并通过近60 a来各试点的气象数据分析气象因子的变化趋势及其对产量的影响,以探讨河北省谷子旱作模式发展规模的可行性。结果表明:(1)年份、地点×年份、地点对产量的变异贡献率分别为47.93%、43.02%和9.05%,谷子产量的差异主要来源于年际间的气候差异。(2)衡水、石家庄、沧州、邯郸、保定谷子产量年份间的变异系数分别为10.91%、11.43%、31.05%、3.95%和20.86%,平均产量依次为5010.52、5211.92、4599.72、4939.55和4712.24 kg/hm^(2)。(3)各试点影响谷子产量的气象因子不同,其中衡水主要受降水量的影响,邯郸主要受降水量、日最高气温和平均相对湿度的影响,沧州主要受降水量、日最高气温和日最低气温的影响,保定主要受日照时数和平均风速的影响,石家庄主要受日照时数的影响。(4)未来10 a,衡水的降水量、保定的日照时数、邯郸的平均相对湿度、石家庄的日照时数均呈显著减少趋势,变化率分别为-20.28 mm/10 a、-48.54 h/10 a、-1.24%/10 a、-95.09 h/10 a,对产量分别有负效应、正效应、正效应和负效应关系;沧州的日最低气温呈显著增加趋势,变化率为0.15℃/10 a,对产量有负效应。(5)在保证粮食目标总产量前提下,河北省可发展旱作谷子的最大面积为54.44×10^(4) hm^(2)。综上,年份间的气候变化对雨养谷子产量影响较大,衡水、石家庄2个地区在实现稳产的前提下更容易实现丰产。河北省可在衡水、沧州、邯郸和邢台地区适当增加旱作谷子面积。In order to save agricultural water,conserve water sources and reduce groundwater exploitation in Hebei Province,the yield differences and influencing factors of millet in Hebei Province in different years and places under dry farming conditions were discussed,as well as the feasibility of the development scale of millet dry farming model in Hebei Province.Using Jigu 19 as the experimental material,the differences of millet yield under dry farming conditions were compared in Hengshui,Shijiazhuang,Cangzhou,Handan and Baoding from 2012 to 2016,so as to clarify the main meteorological factors affecting millet yield.Based on the meteorological data of each pilot in recent 60 years,the change trend of meteorological factors and its impact on millet yield were analyzed in order to explore the feasibility of the development scale of millet dry farming model in Hebei Province.The results showed that:(1)the contribution rates of year,year×place and place to yield variation were 47.93%,43.02%and 9.05%,respectively.The difference of millet yield mainly came from the interannual climate difference.(2)The interannual variation coefficients of millet yield in Hengshui,Shijiazhuang,Cangzhou,Handan and Baoding were 10.91%,11.43%,31.05%,3.95%and20.86%respectively.The average yield was 5010.52,5211.92,4599.72,4939.55 and 4712.24 kg/hm^(2) respectively.(3)The meteorological factors affecting millet yield in each pilot were different.Among them,millet yield in Hengshui was mainly affected by precipitation,that in Handan was mainly affected by precipitation,daily maximum temperature and average relative humidity,that in Cangzhou was mainly affected by precipitation,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature,that in Baoding was mainly affected by sunshine hours and average wind speed,and that in Shijiazhuang was mainly affected by sunshine hours.(4)In the next10 years,the precipitation in Hengshui,the sunshine hours in Baoding,the average relative humidity in Handan and the sunshine hours in Shijiazhuang will decrease si

关 键 词：河北省 谷子 旱作 产量 气象因子 发展规模 

分 类 号：S515[农业科学—作物学]