新《预算法》、晋升激励与预算执行质量--基于预算偏离与预算执行进度的视角  

New“Budget Law”,Promotion Incentive and Quality of Budget Excution:From the Perspective of Budget Deviation and Budget Execution Progrcss

作　　者：赵合云 周全林[2] ZHAO He-yun;ZHOU Quan-lin(Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320;Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州510320 [2]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2022年第4期28-38,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“公司价值驱动的混合所有制改革效应研究”(16BJY003);广东省教育科研重点项目“减税降费推动广东经济高质量发展的效应研究”(2019-GDXK-000);广东省教育厅特色创新项目“双重股权结构与企业绩效的关系研究”(2018WTSCX045)。

摘　　要：新《预算法》是规范政府收支行为的基本法律规范,对于提升预算执行质量至关重要。利用2011-2018年我国30个省级政府的面板数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型,实证评估新《预算法》实施对预算执行质量的作用效果及晋升激励的调节效应。研究发现,新《预算法》的实施能够显著降低预算偏离程度,均衡预算执行进度,全面提升预算执行质量;目前我国的官员晋升激励机制在一定程度上抑制了新《预算法》对预算偏离与预算执行进度的积极作用,即一定程度上抑制了新《预算法》对预算执行质量的提升效果;新《预算法》实施对西部地区预算执行质量的提升效果最为明显,中部地区次之,东部地区最不明显。为此,应进一步完善预算执行动态监控体系,改进官员晋升激励机制,重视预算执行质量的地区差异,以确保新《预算法》真正落地见效,切实提升预算执行质量。As the basic legal norm to regulate the government5 s behavior of revenue and expenditure,the new “Budget Law”is of vital importance to improve the quality of budget execution.By making use of the panel data of 30 provincial governments from 2011 to 2018 and constructing an intensity double difference model,this paper empirically evaluates the effect of the implementation of the new “Budget Law”on the quality of budget execution and the regulatory effect of the promotion incentive.The findings show that the implementation of the new “Budget Law”can significantly reduce the degree of budget deviation,balance the progress of budget execution,and comprehensively improve the quality of budget execution.The current official promotion incentive mechanism in China has inhibited the positive effect of the new “Budget Law”on the budget deviation and the progress of budget execution to a certain extent,that is,it has inhibited the positive effect of the new“Budget Law”on the quality of budget execution to a certain extent.The implementation of the new “Budget Law”has the most obvious effect on the improvement of the quality of budget execution in the western region,followed by the central region,but not significant in the eastern region.Therefore,it is necessary to further perfect the dynamic monitoring system of budget execution,revise the incentive mechanism for official promotion,pay attention to the regional differences of the quality of budget execution,so as to ensure the real implementation and effectiveness of the new “Budget Law”and practically improve the quality of budget execution.

关 键 词：新《预算法》 预算执行质量 预算偏离 预算执行进度 晋升激励 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]