高峰时段铁路车站晚点时长分布规律  

Distribution Law of Railway Station Delay Time in Peak Hours

作　　者：杨雄 蒋玉婕 许浩 李梦 柴山青 YANG Xiong;JIANG Yujie;XU Hao;LI Meng;CHAI Shanqing(Zhuzhou Station of China Railway Guangzhou Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhuzhou,Hunan 412008,China;Guangzhou EMU Depot of China Railway Guangzhou Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 511487,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁路广州局集团有限公司株洲车站,湖南株洲412008 [2]中国铁路广州局集团有限公司广州动车段,广东广州511487 [3]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第4期84-89,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：基于运行实绩对高铁车站在早晚高峰时间段下的晚点时长分布规律进行研究,为行车人员提供行车指导,辅助行车人员充分估计晚点时长特征及预测晚点发展态势,更好地进行调度决策。首先描述高速铁路沪昆线上的运行实绩数据,并统计出早晚高峰时段下的车站晚点时长数据。然后,结合统计模型构建车站在早晚高峰时间段下的晚点时长分布模型,并比选确定出最优的晚点时长分布模型。最后,对车站在早晚高峰时段下的晚点时长分布特征进行归纳总结,相关研究结论能为列车晚点传播机理以及智能高铁调度指挥系统提供基础支撑。Based on the operation performance, the distribution law of delay time of high-speed railway stations in the morning and evening peak hours is studied, which provides driving guidance for train dispatchers, assists dispatchers to fully estimate the characteristics of delay time and predict the development trend of delay, so as to make better scheduling decisions. Firstly, this paper describes the operation performance data of the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway, and calculates the station delay time data under morning and evening peak hours. Then, combined with the statistical model, the delay time distribution model of the station in the morning and evening peak hours is constructed, and the optimal delay time distribution model is determined by comparison. Finally, the distribution characteristics of the delay time in the morning and evening peak hours are summarized, and relevant research conclusions can provide basic support for the train delay propagation mechanism and intelligent high-speed rail dispatching and command system.

关 键 词：运行实绩 高速铁路车站 早晚高峰时段 晚点时长分布 

分 类 号：U292.48[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]