堤基管涌险情安全因子影响度分析  

Analysis of Safety Factors Influencing Degree in Piping Risk of Embankment Foundation

作　　者：赵鑫 李爱国 马贵生 ZHAO Xin;LI Ai-guo;MA Gui-sheng(Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China;Changjiang Geotechnical Engineering Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [2]长江岩土工程有限公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第4期141-144,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502601)。

摘　　要：对长江流域大量历史险情相关信息进行归纳分析,得到堤防工程堤基管涌险情的安全影响因子,引入专家区间评分法、集值统计理论、灰色理论和Jousselme距离函数分析了堤防工程堤基管涌险情的定性主控因子的影响程度,建立了定性指标的定量综合分析方法,然后进行最终的堤防工程安全评价,并通过历史险情实例验证其准确性。结果表明,该方法可合理判断堤防工程安全定性指标的影响程度,并可应用于堤防工程的安全评价,为堤防工程的加固治理设计提供理论基础。Based on the induction and analysis of a large number of historical risk information in the Yangtze River Basin,this paper obtained the safety influencing factors of piping risk in embankment foundation.The expert method of interval marking,set-valued statistics theory,the grey theory and Jousselme distance functions were introduced to analyze the qualitative controlling factor influence of embankment foundation piping risk in dike engineering.The comprehensive quantitative analysis method of qualitative index was established to evaluate the ultimate dike engineering safety,and its accuracy was verified by the history danger instances.The results show that the method can judge reasonably the influence degree of the qualitative indexes of the dike engineering,and can be applied to the safety evaluation of the dike engineering,which provides a theoretical basis for the reinforcement and management design of the dike engineering.

关 键 词：堤防工程 安全因子 定性指标定量化 影响度分析 综合安全评价 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]