基于ISM-ANP的堤防风险灰色评价模型及应用  

Application of Grey Dike Risk Evaluation Model Based on ISM-ANP

作　　者：王雪丽 程鑫[1] 朱光华[2] 章光[1] 胡少华[1,3] WANG Xue-li;CHENG Xin;ZHU Guang-hua;ZHANG Guang;HU Shao-hua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Fujian Provincial Investigation,Design and Research Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Fuzhou 350001,China;National Dam Safety Engineering Technology Research Center,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院,福建福州350001 [3]国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第4期145-149,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金(CX2019B014);国家自然科学基金项目(51979208);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC0804600)。

摘　　要：为科学评估并量化堤防工程失事风险,从致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建堤防风险评价指标体系。在通过解释结构模型(ISM)分析指标间作用关系及层级结构的基础上建立网络结构,利用网络分析法(ANP)确定权重;并基于改进的混合型中心点三角白化权函数进行灰色综合评价,从而确定堤防综合风险等级。以武汉市域某段堤防为例开展风险评价,得出其最大综合聚类系数为0.309,对应的评价结果为较高风险,并与传统AHP法对比验证了所提模型的科学性和适用性。In order to scientifically evaluate and quantify the risk of dike project failure,a dike risk evaluation index system was constructed from four aspects of the hazard of hazard factors,the sensitivity of the disaster inducing environment,the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body,and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.The network structure was established on the basis of analyzing the relationship between the indicators and the hierarchical structure through the interpretive structure model(ISM),and the analytic network process(ANP)was used to determine the weight.Based on the improved hybrid central point triangle whitening weight function for gray comprehensive evaluation,the comprehensive risk level of the embankment was determined.Taking a certain section of the dike in Wuhan City as an example to carry out risk evaluation,the maximum comprehensive clustering coefficient is 0.309,and the corresponding evaluation result is higher risk.Through compared with the traditional AHP method,the scientific nature and applicability of the proposed model are verified.

关 键 词：堤防 风险评价 解释结构模型(ISM) 网络分析法(ANP) 白化权函数 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]