山西农谷降水变化与旱涝特征分析及水利应对策略  

Analysis on precipitation change and characteristics of drought and flood in Nonggu of Shanxi Province and water conservancy countermeasures

作　　者：吴伟伟 冯锦萍 孟佩 WU Weiwei;FENG Jinping;MENG Pei(Jinzhong Water Conservancy Bureau,Jinzhong 030600,China;Shanxi Water Conservation Service Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030002,China)

机构地区：[1]晋中市水利局,山西晋中030600 [2]山西省节约用水服务有限公司,山西太原030002

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2022年第4期35-42,共8页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：根据1960—2019年山西农谷降水和厄尔尼诺数据,利用线性回归法、M-K检验法、小波分析法、Z指数法对降水变化趋势、突变性、变化周期、旱涝特征等进行了分析,并对与厄尔尼诺的关联性进行了研究。结果表明:近60年山西农谷降水量呈波动减少趋势,1967年发生突变,突变后降水量由升转降,在24~26年时间尺度上降水存在主周期。年际旱涝时段特征明显且集中,春季干旱集中,多在无厄尔尼诺年份,洪涝分散,多在厄尔尼诺衰退期;夏季干旱集中,洪涝分散,在厄尔尼诺发展期易发生干旱,衰退期易发生洪涝。最后分析了水资源开发利用中的问题,提出水利应对策略,为农业稳产高产提供参考。The change trend,mutation,change period,drought and flood characteristics of precipitation are analyzed by using linear regression,M-K test method,wavelet analysis method and Z index method based on the precipitation and El Nino data in Nonggu of Shanxi Province from 1960 to 2019.The correlation thereof with El Nino is studied.The results show that the precipitation in Nonggu of Shanxi Province is fluctuated and decreased in recent 60 years.The mutation change occurred in 1967.The precipitation is increased,and then it is decreased after the mutation change.There is a main cycle of precipitation in the 24~26a time scale.The interannual drought and flood periods have obvious and concentrated characteristics.The drought is concentrated in spring,mostly in the non-El Nino years.The flood is scattered,mostly in the El Nino decline period.The drought is concentrated in summer.The flood is scattered.Drought easily occurs in El Nino development period.Flood easily occurs in the recession period.The problems in the development and utilization of water resources are analyzed finally.Countermeasures for water conservancy are proposed,thereby providing reference for stable and high yield agriculture.

关 键 词：山西农谷 降水 厄尔尼诺 M-K检测法 小波分析法 旱涝指数 水资源利用 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]