女性烧伤患者发生恐动症的危险因素分析及其预测模型的建立  

Analysis of Risk Factors and Establishment of a Prediction Model of Phobia in Female Burn Patients

作　　者：姜宏[1] 赖绍燕 孙丽莹 JIANG Hong;LAI Shao-yan;SUN Li-ying(Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery,Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital,Guangdong Shenzhen 518035,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市第二人民医院烧伤整形科,广东深圳518035

出　　处：《湖北科技学院学报（医学版）》2022年第2期148-151,共4页Journal of Hubei University of Science and Technology(Medical Sciences)

摘　　要：目的分析女性烧伤患者发生恐动症的危险因素分析及并建立预测模型。方法选取我院收治的158例女性烧伤患者作为研究对象,其中54例患者发生恐动症,104例患者未发生恐动症,根据其临床转归分为恐动症组和正常组。收集两组患者一般资料,单因素分析获取女性烧伤患者发生恐动症的潜在危险因素,多因素分析确定独立危险因素,并以此构建预测模型。采用Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)检验以及ROC曲线下面积验证模型的拟合效果和区分度。结果单因素分析结果显示两组患者在年龄、婚育情况、文化程度、烧伤原因等方面差异不具有统计学意义(P>0.05);在烧伤面积、NRS、SAS、SDS、CPSS等方面差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素结果显示烧伤患者发生恐动症的独立危险因素为烧伤面积、NRS、SAS、SDS、CPSS。预测模型公式为In(P/1-P)=-3.032+0.131×烧伤面积+0.058×NRS评分+0.07×SAS评分+0.052×SDS评分-0.047×CPSS评分。其中H-L检验结果显示该模型能较好地拟合实际发生情况(χ^(2)=15.230,P=0.055);ROC分析结果显示该模型的AUC为0.891,最佳截断值为0.326,灵敏度为87.0%,特异性为83.7%。结论本次研究构建的女性烧伤患者发生恐动症预测模型具有良好的预测价值,能够为临床干预方案的制定提供证据支撑。Objective To analyze the risk factors of phobia in female burn patients and establish a prediction model.Methods 158 female burn patients admitted into our hospital from January 2019 to January 2021 were selected as the research object,of which 54 patients were diagnosed with phobia and 104 patients without phobia.They were divided into phobia group and normal group according to their clinical outcome.The general data of the two groups were collected.The potential risk factors of female burn patients with phobia were identified by univariate analysis.The independent risk factors were determined by multivariate analysis,and the prediction model was constructed.Hosmer lemeshow(H-L)test and area under ROC curve were used to verify the fitting effect and discrimination of the model.Results Univariate analysis showed that there was no significant difference between the two groups in age,marriage and childbirth,education level and causes of burn(P>0.05);There were significant differences in burn area,NRs,SAS,SDS and CPSS(P<0.05).The multivariate results showed that the independent risk factors of phobia in burn patients were burn area,NRs,SAS,SDS and CPSS.The prediction model formula is in(P/1-p)=-3.032+0.131×Burn area+0.058×NRS score+0.07×SAS score+0.052×SDS score-0.047×CPSS score.The H-L test results show that the model can better fit the actual situation(χ^(2)=15.230,P=0.055);ROC analysis showed that the AUC of the model was 0.891,the optimal cutoff value was 0.326,the sensitivity was 87.0%,and the specificity was 83.7%.Conclusion The prediction model of phobia in female burn patients constructed in this study has good prediction value and can provide evidence support for the formulation of clinical intervention plan.

关 键 词：恐动症 女性烧伤患者 危险因素分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：R644[医药卫生—外科学]