基于条件风险价值理论的水库群防洪库容协同作用  

Research on the synergistic effect of multi-reservoir flood control capacity by considering the conditional value-at-risk

作　　者：张晓琦 刘攀[2] 陈进[1,2] 许继军[1] 王永强 姚立强[1] 洪晓峰[1] ZHANG Xiaoqi;LIU Pan;CHEN Jin;XU Jijun;WANG Yongqiang;YAO Liqiang;HONG Xiaofeng(Hubei Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Eco-Environmental Sciences,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源与生态环境湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水科学进展》2022年第2期298-305,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52109003,41890822)。

摘　　要：将经济学条件风险价值(CVaR)理论引入防洪评价领域,提出基于CVaR的水库群防洪库容协同作用研究方法,辨识各水库防洪库容值对库群系统防洪损失的影响程度及各水库间协同防洪的互馈方式。以汉江流域五库群系统为案例研究,结果表明:①库群系统防洪损失CVaR对各水库防洪库容变动的敏感度排序依次为三里坪、鸭河口、丹江口、安康、潘口水库;②当总防洪库容不变时,变动各水库防洪库容组合方案所对应的防洪损失CVaR不一定相同,且各水库防洪库容组合存在可行区间;③若选取相同CVaR为约束条件,相比于两库系统(安康-丹江口水库),五库系统由于考虑了更多水库(潘口、三里坪、鸭河口水库)的防洪协调作用,丹江口水库自身防洪库容可调节的灵活空间更大。The concept of conditional value-at-risk(CVaR)is introduced into the field of flood damage assessment,and a joint design method for multi-reservoir system flood storage based on CVaR is then proposed.The purpose of the method is to research on the mutual feedback mode for coordinated flood control among reservoirs by analyzing the degree of influence of each reservoir′s storage capacity on the flood control risk of the reservoir group system as a whole.The five-reservoir system of the Hanjiang River is selected as a case study,and the flood damage assessment index CVaR values corresponding to the present flood storage combination scheme(FSCS)are regarded as upper limit values.The results show that:①The sensitivity rankings of the five reservoirs,in descending order,are:Sanliping,Yahekou,Danjiangkou,Ankang,and Pankou reservoirs.②The flood damage assessment index CVaR values corresponding to different FSCSs may not be the same when the total flood storage of the multi-reservoir system is fixed as a constant,and there is a viable FSCS for the multi-reservoir system.③If the same CVaR constraint conditions are selected,the Danjiangkou Reservoir has greater flexibility to adjust its flood control capacity in the five-reservoir system than in the two-reservoir system,because the former considers the flood control coordination effect of more reservoirs(such as Pankou,Sanliping,Yahekou reservoirs).

关 键 词：防洪库容 水库群系统 条件风险价值 防洪损失 汉江流域 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]