海绵城市PPP项目VFM定量评价系统动力学模型构建——以天津市S海绵城市项目为例  

Study on System Dynamics Model of VFM Quantitative Evaluation of Sponge City PPP Project——Taking S Sponge City Project in Tianjin as an Example

作　　者：张恒 林天赐 郑兵云[1] 唐根丽[1] Zhang Heng;Lin Tianci;Zheng Bingyun;Tang Genli(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,蚌埠233030

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第3期212-222,共11页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

基　　金：安徽省高校科学研究重点项目(SK2021A0239);安徽省创新发展研究项目(2021CX083).

摘　　要：为科学判别海绵城市PPP项目物有所值定量评价过程中关键因素对评价结果的影响,文章在公共部门参照法的基础上,利用系统动力学原理,构建了海绵城市PPP项目VFM定量评价系统动力学模型,并结合天津市S海绵城市PPP项目案例运用Vensim PLE软件进行仿真模拟,研究了全生命周期内项目PSC值、PPP值、VFM值的变化趋势,并对风险分担比例、折现率、投资合理利润率三个关键因素进行了灵敏度分析。结果表明:该模型能够有效运用到海绵城市PPP项目物有所值动态定量评价过程中,可以为定量评价关键因素的取值提供科学合理的政策建议。In order to scientifically identify the impact of key factors on the evaluation results in the process of value for money quantitative evaluation of sponge city PPP project,this paper,based on Public Sector Comparator,utilizes the principle of system dynamics and constructs the VFM quantitative evaluation system dynamics model of sponge city PPP project.The case of S sponge city PPP project in Tianjin is considered in this study and Vensim PLE software is adopted for simulation.Besides,the change trend of PSC value,PPP value and VFM value through the whole life cycle is studied.The sensitivity analysis is conducted on three key factors,namely risk sharing proportion,discount rate and reasonable profit rate of investment.The results show that the model can be effectively applied to the value for money quantitative evaluation of sponge city PPP project and can provide scientific and reasonable policy suggestions for the value of key factors in quantitative evaluation.

关 键 词：海绵城市 物有所值 政府与社会资本合作 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]