绥江流域64 a年平均径流量变化特征研究  

Study on the Variation Characteristics of 64-year Average Runoff in Suijiang River Basin

作　　者：黄丽 冼永成 HUANG Li;XIAN Yongcheng(Zhaoqing Hydrology Branch of Hydrology Bureau of Guangdong Province,Zhaoqing 526000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局肇庆水文分局,广东肇庆526000

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2022年第5期51-55,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：为厘清绥江流域多年年平均流量变化趋势,基于四会控制水文站64 a长时间序列年平均流量数据,采用线性趋势法与R/S分析法、MWP检验法、EEMD分解法分别对年平均流量的变化特征、周期性及演变趋势进行多方法评估。研究表明:年平均流量与年份呈正相关关系,未来8 a内,整体以0.00178 m3/s的速率呈缓慢增加趋势,但是这种趋势并不明显且无突变,年平均流量处于正常波动范围内。年平均流量主要以小尺度周期变化为主,波动变化趋势较为稳定,第一变化主周期为3 a,对应贡献率为66.26%。In order to clarify the variation trend of the annual average flow in the Suijiang River Basin,based on the 64-year long-term annual average flow data of the Sihui control hydrological station,the linear trend method,R/S analysis method,MWP test method and EEMD decomposition were used to analyze the annual average flow rate respectively.The variation characteristics,periodicity and evolution trend of the average flow are evaluated by multiple methods.The research shows that the annual average flow is positively correlated with the year.In the next 8 years,the overall trend will increase slowly at a rate of 0.00178m3/s,but this trend is not obvious and there is no sudden change,and the annual average flow is within the normal fluctuation range.The annual average flow is dominated by small-scale periodic changes,and the fluctuation trend is relatively stable.The first main change cycle is 3 years,and the corresponding contribution rate is 66.26%.This poses challenges to the economic and social development in the basin.

关 键 词：绥江流域 年平均流量 变化趋势 周期性 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]