宁夏引黄灌区玉米趋势产量与气候产量分离方法研究  

Separating the Effect of Meteorology on Maize Yield from the Impact of Other Factors in the Yellow River-water Irrigated Regions in Ningxia of China

作　　者：何虹 王巧娟 李亮 蔡焕杰[1,2,3] HE Hong;WANG Qiaojuan;LI Liang;CAI Huanjie(College of Water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Agriculture Water Conservation Research Institute of Arid Zone,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学中国旱区节水农业研究院,陕西杨凌712100 [3]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2022年第4期30-39,共10页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51879223);国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0400201)。

摘　　要：【目的】探寻引黄灌区长时间序列玉米产量的适宜分离方法。【方法】以宁夏引黄灌区6个市(县)1988—2019年玉米产量统计资料为基础数据,分别利用五年滑动平均法、二次指数平滑法和五点二次平滑法对实际产量进行分离,得到趋势产量与气候产量,并采用一致性相关系数法、趋势产量实际趋势符合度分析法和同一气候区气候变化特征的一致性可引起气候产量同升同降等方法和原则作为评判标准,比较分析3种方法的适用性与合理性,并利用气候因子与产量之间的合理关系对选出的方法进一步检验。【结果】不同方法均能较好地拟合趋势产量,与研究区的趋势产量的一致性相关系数大多可达到较好或极好等级,3种方法在趋势产量拟合上无明显差异;二次指数平滑法和五点二次平滑法拟合的趋势产量序列能较真实地反映因生产力和国家政策变化而导致的实际产量变化,五年滑动平均法拟合的趋势产量变化体现实际社会发展的能力最差;当研究区各地气候变化特征基本相同时,五点二次平滑法分离得到的相对气候产量更能体现气候要素年际变化对其产量的影响;五点二次平滑法建立的相对气候产量模型能够合理地反映气候因子与产量的关系,符合玉米生长发育特性。【结论】综合分析,五点二次平滑法更具有普适性,可以反映因气候因子变化带来的产量变化。【Objective】Variation in crop yield is the consequence of many natural and anthropogenic factors, and disentangling their impacts is important for improving agricultural management but difficult. The purpose of this paper is to propose and compared different methods to isolate the impacts of meteorological change on crop yield based on long time series of maize yield in Yellow River-water irrigated region in Ninxia province of China.【Method】The analysis is based on maize yield measured from 1988 to 2019 in 6 counties located in the Yellow River-watered irrigation areas. We compared three methods for the separation: five-year moving average method,quadratic exponential smoothing method, and five-point quadratic smoothing method. The consistent correlation coefficient, trend coincidence conformity analysis method, consistency of climate change characteristics, which lead to the same rise-fall in meteorological yield, were used as the evaluation criteria. Their applicability and rationality were compared and analyzed. All methods were calibrated based on the relationship between meteorological factors and maize yield.【Result】All methods can fit the yield trend well. Compared with the average yield trend, the consistency correlation coefficients of all three methods were >0.5, suggesting that there was no significant difference between these methods for fitting the yield trend. The advantage of the quadratic exponential smoothing method and the five-point quadratic smoothing method is that they accurately describe the change in the yield as affected by national productivity and national policy. The change in the yield due to meteorological factors estimated by the five-point quadratic smoothing method described the effect of inter-annual meteorological factors better, and its associated meteorological yield model is able to describe the relationship between the meteorological factors and the maize yield.【Conclusion】Comprehensive analysis showed that the five-point quadratic smoothing method modeled the

关 键 词：玉米 趋势产量 气候产量 分离方法 

分 类 号：P942[天文地球—自然地理学]