考虑需求刺激的双积分政策效果研究:基于SD建模的多情景分析  

Research on the Effects of Dual Credit Policy Considering Demand Stimulus:Multi-scenario Analysis Based on SD Modeling

作　　者：周钟 陈嘉辉 陈智高[3] ZHOU Zhong;CHEN Jia-hui;CHEN Zhi-gao(School of Economics and Management.Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China;Synergisticlnnovation Center of Enterprise Strategic Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China;School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学经济与管理学院,上海201418 [2]上海应用技术大学企业战略管理协同创新中心,上海201418 [3]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《系统工程》2022年第2期60-69,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CGL056)。

摘　　要：双积分政策是直接作用于汽车制造创新价值链的一种复杂新型产业政策,以财政补贴为代表的需求,刺激政策如何影响双积分政策的实施效果,对组合政策的设计与实施至关重要。在双积分政策框架解读基础上,通过分析政策与企业运营间的因果回路关系,构建了双积分政策影响企业运营的系统动力学模型。以主要施政对象为典型案例的多情景研究显示:新能源汽车需求刺激政策会显著激励企业增产新能源汽车,在传统燃油汽车需求较高时的政策效果更佳。但刺激政策推动企业的新能源汽车扩产决策作用会逐渐弱化,且存在挤出双积分政策限制旧产业发展的连带效应,尤其是当传统燃油汽车需求较低时,企业收缩传统燃油汽车减产规模的幅度更大。建议政府兼顾所处的经济周期和预期达到的政策目的,择机推出新能源汽车需求刺激政策,并配合趋严的双积分政策力度。Dual credit policy is a kind of complex new industrial policy that directly influences the innovation value chain of automobile manufacturing.How the demand stimulus policy represented by financial subsidies influences the implementation of the dual credit policy is very important for the design and implementation of policy portfolio.Based on the interpretation of the dual credit policy framework,this paper analyzes the causal loop between policy and enterprise operation,and constructs a system dynamics model of the dual credit policy affecting enterprise operation.The multi-scenario study,which takes the main role of policy as a typical case,shows that:The demand stimulus policy will significantly stimulate enterprises to increase production of new energy vehicles.The policy effect is better when the demand of traditional energy vehicles is higher.However,the role of stimulus policies in promoting the decision-making of new energy vehicle production expansion will gradually weaken.There is a joint effect of crowding out the function of dual credit policy to restrict the development of mature old industries.Especially when the demand of traditional energy vehicles is low,enterprises shrink the scale of production reduction of traditional energy vehicles more significantly.It is suggested that the government should take into account its economic cycle and expected policy objectives,select the opportunity to launch the new energy vehicle demand stimulus policy,with the tightening double credit policy.

关 键 词：双积分政策 需求刺激政策 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]