地震损失的空间相关性及其对震害损失估计的影响  

Spatial correlation of earthquake damage and its influence on earthquake loss distribution estimation

作　　者：周阳 王自法 石磊[1] 仝文博 ZHOU Yang;WANG Zifa;SHI Lei;TONG Wenbo(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;CEAKJ ADPRHexa Inc,Shaoguan 512029,China;Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学土木建筑学院,河南开封475004 [2]中震科建(广东)防灾减灾研究院,广东韶关512029 [3]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2022年第2期151-159,共9页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51978634)。

摘　　要：在地震危险性分析或者地震损失分布评估中,需要考虑地震损失的空间相关性的影响。目前对地震损失空间相关性的研究,主要是基于经验或半经验的方法,没有经过实际地震损失分布的验证。本文基于2011年东日本大地震收集到的55万条建筑物破坏的详细数据得出了基于实际震害的地震损失随距离关系变化的空间相关性衰减规律,给出了一个基于实际数据的拟合公式,并将其应用于最新开发的基于高精度模拟的巨灾风险分析中。利用北京地区多个地震为算例,研究了实现空间相关性模拟的样本精度问题,并且给出了不同空间相关系数对地震损失分布的影响,从而能为未来的防震减灾工作提供更好的地震损失估计结果。In earthquake risk analysis or loss distribution assessment,the impact of the spatial correlation of earthquake loss needs to be considered. Current studies on the spatial correlation of earthquake loss estimation often rely on empirical or semi-empirical methods,whose accuracy needs to be verified by actual detailed loss distribution.Based on the extensive damage data of over 550,000 buildings from the 2011 East Japan Earthquake,this paper has derived the distance dependent spatial correlation of building losses,and a formula is proposed to approximate the actual spatial correlation. The formula is implemented in a new catastrophe risk modeling platform that is built on high-resolution simulation of earthquake events and their loss distribution. Selected scenario earthquake events near Beijing are used to study the sampling accuracy of the simulation in implementing the distance dependent correlation and the impact of varying spatial correlation on earthquake loss distribution,providing improved loss estimate for future earthquake risk mitigation efforts.

关 键 词：空间相关性 地震损失 日本震害资料 不确定性 地震巨灾风险 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]