基于尖锥网络分析的输油管道破裂风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Oil Pipeline Rupture Based on Cone-ANP

作　　者：杨云鹏 YANG Yun-peng(School of Intelligent Manufacturing,Guangdong Nanfang Institute of Technology,Jiangmen 529040,China)

机构地区：[1]广东南方职业学院智能制造学院,江门529040

出　　处：《当代化工》2021年第12期2958-2961,共4页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：教育部科技发展中心高校产学研创新基金“北创助教”项目(项目编号:2018B02013);广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(项目编号:2019GKTSCX166)。

摘　　要：考虑输油管道运行过程中存在的破裂风险,利用故障树分析法(FTA)进行风险因素的识别,找出导致输油管道破裂的影响因子,结合尖锥网络分析法(Cone-ANP)的一般性结构构造出输油管道破裂的风险评估体系,并据此得出尖锥元素分类,经量化得到风险评估指标权重。结果表明:输油管道有破裂风险,该风险主要由应力和第三方破坏等重要因素造成,其中,施工误操作和设计缺陷占权重较高,整体指标权重评估更为客观,为提高输油管道的安全管理水平、加强风险节点控制、减少风险事故发生提供参考。Considering the risk of rupture during the operation of the oil pipeline,the fault tree analysis method(FTA)was used to identify the risk factors,and the influencing factors that led to the rupture of the oil pipeline were found,combined with the general structure of ANP based on the cone network(Cone-ANP),a risk assessment system for the rupture of an oil pipeline was constructed,and based on this,the sharp cone element classification was obtained,and the risk assessment index weight is quantified.The results show that there is a risk of rupture of the oil pipeline,which was mainly caused by important factors,such as stress and third-party damage.Among them,misoperation in construction and design defects accounted for a higher weight,and the overall index weight evaluation was more objective,which could provide some reference to improve the safety management level of oil pipeline,strengthen the control of risk nodes,and reduce the occurrence of risk accidents.

关 键 词：输油管道 风险评估 破裂 尖锥网络分析 故障树分析 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] TQ055.8[化学工程]